College Basketball Predictions and Picks

Dayton vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, November 23 (Sharps Flip Spread from Badgers to Flyers)

Dayton Flyers forward Daron Holmes II leads the team in points per game and field goal percentage in 2022.
Dayton Flyers forward Daron Holmes II leads the team in points per game and field goal percentage in 2022. / Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
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Game 2 of the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis will be a drastic contrast from the opening matchup between the NC State Wolfpack and No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks.

The Dayton Flyers and Wisconsin Badgers feature two of the top 25 best defenses in college basketball, with a rock fight is expected in the Bahamas later this afternoon.

Ironically enough, the last time these two teams met was more than 60 years ago back in December of 1961, where Wisconsin took down the Flyers 105-93. Good to see the impact of the modern day offense in college basketball shine through, am I right?

Here are the latest odds for today's matchup:

Dayton vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread and Total

Dayton vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Pick

After Wisconsin opened as a slight favorite, the line has gone the complete opposite direction, moving towards Dayton at -2 to -2.5, depending on the book.

As mentioned earlier, both defenses are terrific. Wisconsin comes in with the 21st ranked adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, while Dayton ranks 25th.

Neither of these two offenses are weak by any means, but they do have some major flaws that both defenses should capitalize on. Dayton averages a turnover rate of 21.5%, 276th in the nation, and also shoots just 29.5% from long-range. They might as well not even try against the Badgers, who own college basketball's best three-point defense, limiting opponents to 11.1% from beyond the arc.

As for Wisconsin, they can shoot from outside (38.5%), but can't make baskets inside the line; ranking 342nd in 2-point percentage at a pitiful 40.2 percent. Dayton ranks top 40 in opponent 3-point %, and top 15 in opponent 2-point percentage, so no matter where Wisconsin tries to make shots, the Flyers will be in their face.

Ultimately, that's where I think this game is won. Unless Wisconsin shoots lights out from the arc, they can't score the easy baskets inside, and Dayton can limit them from all over the court. If the Flyers don't turn the ball over and continue to make baskets in the lane, I like them to pull away late.

It's a little pricey, but I'll lay it on the Flyers moneyline rather than the spread, knowing by nature, this game could be ugly throughout.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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