Betsided

Denver vs. Omaha Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Summit League Semifinal (Trust Mavericks)

Summit League semifinals preview, prediction and best bets for Omaha vs. Denver on March 11.

By Reed Wallach

Nov 10, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks center Dylan Brougham (14) reacts to
Nov 10, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks center Dylan Brougham (14) reacts to / Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Denver and Omaha look to make an appearance in the Summit League Finals with a matchup on Monday not only determining a finalist, but also settling a season series. 

The road team won each meeting this season by double digits, and each team had a thrilling one point win in the quarterfinals round on Sunday, making for an exciting semifinal matchups with dangerous offensive threats on each side. 

Who has the edge in this near coin flip matchup? Here’s our full betting preview for Monday’s semifinal matchup!

New FanDuel users, get ready for March Madness by signing up below and getting $150 in bonus bets when you win your first bet of just $5! Get started now. 

Denver vs. Omaha Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Denver: +1.5
  • Omaha: -1.5

Moneyline

  • Denver: +105
  • Omaha: -120

Total: 154.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Omaha vs. Denver State Betting Trends

  • Denver is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games
  • Omaha is 15-13 ATS this season ATS 
  • Denver has gone over in 19 of 28 games against Division 1 opponents this season
  • Denver has gone OVER in 11 of 17 games as an underdog

Denver vs. Omaha How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, Match 11
  • Game Time: 9:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Sanford Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Summit League Network
  • Denver: 16-16
  • Omaha Record: 15-17

Denver vs. Omaha Key Players to Watch

Denver

Tommy Bruner: Bruner has been battling a nagging injury, and was a game-time call for the quarters, but suited up and played 36 minutes. There is no denying his impact on the team, ranking tops in usage rate in Summit League play while posting a top 10 free throw rate in conference games as he buoys an otherwise limited offense. He combined for 46 points in the two meetings against Omaha. 

Omaha

Frankie Fidler Fidler scored 34 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in the win against North Dakota on Sunday, and he can be a matchup nightmare for the limited defenses in Summit League play, including Denver. The big man scored more than 30 in each game against the Pioneers this season. 

Denver vs. Omaha Prediction and Pick

Both offenses should thrive in this game, each defense is far worse than the opposing offense, ranking outside the top 300 in terms of effective field goal percentage, but I’m going to side with Fiddler and the Mavericks to get over the hump and advance to the Summit League finals. 

Denver’s defense is particularly poor, bottom 10 in the country in terms of transition defense and defending the pick-and-roll, which can open up plenty of easy buckets for Fiddler as the roll man. If that’s the case, I’ll hold my hat on Omaha’s defense doing enough to get by. 

The Mavericks defense has been plagued by poor shot variance over the last month. The defense does a great job of stopping dribble penetration, allowing a top 50 three-point rate since Feb. 1, but teams have been shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc. However, Denver is an inefficient offense around its 3-point happy tendencies. The Pioneers are shooting three’s at a top 30 rate to a 30% clip. 

I think Denver remains too perimeter oriented, and the quick turnaround with a banged up Bruner holds the team back from advancing. 

I’ll take the short favorite on Monday. 

PICK: Omaha ML (-125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

Home/College Basketball Predictions and Picks