Derek Carr’s NFL MVP Odds Are Still Disrespectful

Through the first seven weeks of the NFL season, the NFL MVP odds have been dominated by three main contenders: Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen. Tom Brady has been floating around outside the top-three but within striking distance of the top spot.

While the odds board for the NFL MVP is predictably chock full of big names, one is suspiciously omitted from the top of the list. That name is Derek Carr who is currently 16th in MVP odds at +7500 at WynnBET. 

Some of the questionable names ahead of Carr in the odds include Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Teddy Bridgewater, and Russell Wilson. Wilson is injured and hasn’t even played in the last two weeks. So, why the hate for Carr? 

Maybe his stats don’t hold up? Well, taking a look at how he stacks up against the rest of the league, this doesn’t seem to be the issue. Carr is second in the NFL in passing yards with 2269 and trails Tom Brady by just six yards for the top spot. Carr also ranks in the top five in both completions and attempts. I’ll admit that Carr (12) does lack the touchdown totals of Tom Brady (21) and Matthew Stafford (19), both Wilson and Bridgewater have less and still have better odds to win the MVP. Carr also has a net yard per attempt that ranks sixth in the league and QBR that is 12th best. 

Maybe his team stinks? Could be the cause of the disrespect that Carr is getting.

Well, the Raiders are 5-2 overall this season and lead the AFC West. They are 4-1 in conference play and have outscored their opponents by 14 points combined and are on a two-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Bridgewater’s Broncos are on a four-game losing streak and in third place in the AFC West. The Seahawks are on a three-game losing streak and are 2-5 on the season. And sure, those last two losses cant be blamed on Wilson. Why? Oh, because he didn’t even play! 

So, how are two quarterbacks with worse stats on losing teams being given better odds to win the MVP than Derek Carr? I really don’t have an answer to that question. I don’t think Carr deserves to be one of “the guys” at the top of the list, mind you. However, he certainly hasn’t earned his spot in the bottom half of MVP candidates for 2021.