The New England Patriots head to Buffalo to settle the score with their AFC East rival Bills. The two teams split their season series, but Buffalo won the division giving them home field advantage in the AFC Wild Card round.
You can check out our game preview here, but let's take a look at the rushing yard props for three running backs and see who is primed to excel in Saturday night's showdown.
All odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
Patriots vs. Bills Rushing Yards Prop
- Damien Harris: 65.5 Rushing Yards (Over -115/Under -115)
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 42.5 Rushing Yards (Over -115/Under -115)
- Devin Singletary: 65.5 Rushing Yards (Over -115/Under -115)
While Stevenson is getting respect in the prop market, I envision a Harris-centric run game from the Patriots on Saturday night.
Harris rushed for more than 100 yards against the Bills in both games this season and given the extreme weather expected in Buffalo, I believe the Pats are going to feed their bell cow back.
I believe that New England is going to try and slow this game down and keep Josh Allen on the sidelines and avoid putting rookie quarterback Mac Jones in a pass-heavy game script.
Buffalo has an elite defense, but I expect the visitors to try and establish the run and make this more of a grind.
Stevenson has had an up-and-down season in terms of carries, but I'm expecting that Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels opt for Harris, who had monster games against the Bills in this matchup.
Stevenson's rushing yard prop is low, but against a Buffalo defense that is top five in rushing success rate, I don't see enough touches for him to clear this total.
If you take out the two games Harris missed due to injury, Stevenson is averaging just over 10 carries per game. It's the playoffs, count on the Pats to lean on their No. 1 back.
Singletary has retaken the top of the depth chart from the likes of Zack Moss, but this rushing yard prop is too high in a game that I expect will yield a ton of Josh Allen usage from the Bills backfield.
Allen is an adept runner and I believe the Buffalo offense will surround him keeping the ball and either taking off or pushing the ball down field.
Singletarry has gone over this mark in three of four games, but hasn't sniffed it in four postseason, going below 30 yards in each of them. Meanwhile, Allen has gone over his rushing yard total of 44.5 in three of four games.
I'd lean with Singletary having a subdued rushing outing given the historical indicators.