Diamondbacks vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, September 27 (Eventually I'll Be Right on McCullers)

The Houston Astros are just one of what seems like quite a few teams that either already have or will pass the 100 win threshold this season. Houston is 101-53 heading into this quick two-game set with the 71-83 Arizona Diamondbacks. Houston is far and away the best team in the American League and just seeing how high that win total can climb before the postseason. 

Lance McCullers Jr. rides his fantastic start to his season into his eighth start of the year for Houston tonight. He is opposed by Zach Davies for Arizona. 

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

I have been on McCullers regression watch since about his third start back from injury. There are some alarming signs going off like sirens in my head when I look at his numbers, but it hasn’t come yet and he seems to be getting better with every start. Last time out he went seven innings and gave up two earned while striking out eight and only walking two.

Maybe the regression just isn’t going to come or maybe we need a larger sample before water starts to find his level, but essentially this concern comes from his sinker. 

McCullers’ curveball is as good as ever and already has a negative-5 run value in just seven starts, but his sinker has a run value of five. He throws the pitch a quarter of the time and opponents are hitting .429 off of it and slugging .800. His is only getting a 6.1% whiff rate on that pitch compared to 16.6% last year when the pitch carried a -4 run value. 

That has driven his expected ERA up to 3.56 compared to his ERA of 2.38. I do still believe that regression could easily come for him this year, but I have been proven wrong almost every time he has taken the mound. My process is there and it’s sound, one of these days I’m going to be right, but I would understand if you fade me today. 

Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110)

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