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Diamondbacks vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 30 (Back Runs in Rough Pitching Matchup in Atlanta)

By Ben Heisler

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Ian Anderson has a 5.31 ERA in 19 starts this year.
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Ian Anderson has a 5.31 ERA in 19 starts this year. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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The Atlanta Braves look to improve to 20 games above .500 and inch closer to first place in the NL East division when they host Game 2 of their three-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening.

Both teams enter playing well over their last 10 games; going 6-4 and outscoring opponents by a combined total of 28 runs.

Ian Anderson gets the ball for Atlanta against fellow right-hander Corbin Martin for Arizona. Martin makes just his second start of the season for the Diamondbacks while Anderson is on the bump for his 20th of the season.

Here are the latest odds for this evening's matchup via WynnBET Sportsbook:

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105)
  • Braves -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

  • Diamondbacks +195
  • Braves -215

Total:

  • 9.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

This is one of the more uninspiring sets of probable pitchers on the slate, leading me to lean on the over from Atlanta this evening.

Ian Anderson's been a tad bit unlucky, but he's also been bad this season as well. The right-hander's control has been all over the place; walking an average of 4.55 batters per nine innings this season in addition to posting a 5.31 ERA. His 4.47 Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP imply that he's due for some positive regression, but when you're also walking the ballpark, much of the bad luck has been put on himself.

For the Diamondbacks, Corbin Martin has only made one start this year, going four innings vs. the Nationals. The 26-year old righty only gave up one earned run, but he also walked five and struck out just one batter. Granted, he pitched himself out of plenty of jams, but Fangraphs has his expected ERA at 5.28 instead of his actual ERA of 3.93; so at some point, those walks are going to come back and bite him.

Expect a long, drawn-out game in Atlanta tonight, highlighted by lots of walks which eventually should come around to score.

LEAN: OVER 9.5 (-110)

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