Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for Friday, April 29th (Underlying Metrics Suggest Runs Galore)

After earning an 8-3 win in the first game of this four-game series, the 11-7 St. Louis Cardinals will send Adam Wainwright to the mound to take on Madison Bumgarner and the 8-12 Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at 8:15 PM EST.

Wainwright has been a mixed bag through four starts in 2022. He shutout the Pirates and held the Marlins to one run, but surrendered four each to the Brewers and Reds in a pair of rough outings.

Bumgarner, meanwhile, hasn't allowed an earned run in either of his last two outings and sports a dazzling 1.00 ERA over 18 innings.

Can Wainwright keep the Diamondbacks offense at bay and give the Cardinals a 2-0 series lead or will Bumgarner maintain his strong start to pull off the upset?

Thanks to the odds from our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook, let's see where the value lies in this Diamondbacks vs Cardinals matchup:

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-135)
• Cardinals: -1.5 (+112)

Moneyline:

• Diamondbacks: +177
• Cardinals: -195

Total:

• 7.0 (Over -125/Under +105)

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Madison Bumgarner has allowed just two earned runs in four starts, but his 4.01 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he's been extremely lucky to this point. He's given up six earned runs each of the last two times he's faced St. Louis, and the Cardinals have 18 runs combined in their previous two games.

On the other hand, Wainwright appears to be showing his age a bit so far in 2022. The 40-year-old is giving up more hard contact than in previous years and although he's facing a weak offense in Arizona, it's hard to have a ton of confidence in him.

As a result, I'm a bit surprised this total is so low. The under is 5-15 in Diamondbacks' games this season but this feels like an overreaction. Bumgarner has not been as good as his box score stats suggest, and Arizona's bullpen ranks seventh-worst in ERA.

The over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals' home games and I believe that trend continues today. Most bettors will see this pitching matchup and think that with these pitchers' track record, runs will be hard to come by. But not so fast. We have to evaluate who these pitchers are now, not what they used to be. And what they are now suggests the total should be higher.

Pick: Over 7.0 (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.