After a thrilling walk-off win over the Phillies last night snapped a four-game losing streak, the 20-12 Los Angeles Dodgers now host the 18-16 Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at 10:10 PM EST.
The Diamondbacks have lost three of four after a torrid stretch of play and send Madison Bumgarner to the hill in hopes of righting the ship. Bumgarner is an enigma. He has a 1.78 ERA and hasn't allowed more than two runs in a single start, but his underlying metrics are poor and his 4.69 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) implies he's been lucky. But it's been that way all year and he keeps pitching well, so maybe he's got a four-leaf clover in his hat?
Tony Gonsolin gets the nod for Los Angeles and he's been lights out. Through six starts, Gonsolin has a 1.33 ERA and has allowed only four earned runs all season. Two of those did come against the Diamondbacks last month, but you're doing pretty well if your worst start was surrendering two runs.
Can Gonsolin stay hot against the visitors or will Bumgarner continue laughing in the face of statistical regression?
Thanks to our friends at WynnBET, here are the odds to help us pick a winner in this Diamondbacks vs Dodgers matchup:
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105)
- Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
- Diamondbacks: +210
- Dodgers: -240
- 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Both of these pitchers have achieved great success in the 2022 campaign, but they've accomplished it in very different ways. Bumgarner keeps snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, amassing a 1.78 ERA despite a discouraging pitching profile:
A mediocre-at-best profile, right? Hardly the numbers that would have me shaking in my cleats. Okay, now take a look at the metrics Gonsolin has compiled en route to his 3-0 record and 1.33 ERA:
That's more like it! While he struggles to go deep in games and walks too many batters, Gonsolin is dynamite otherwise. With the National League's best bullpen backing him up, it's no wonder the Dodgers have won four of his last five starts. That one loss did come against Arizona, though, so the formula is there for the Diamondbacks to pull off an upset.
The Dodgers rank 18th in OPS against left-handed pitchers while the Diamondbacks are 7th in OPS in May. With Los Angeles using four relievers in yesterday's comeback win, they'll have a weaker bullpen if Gonsolin doesn't go deep. They've lost four of five as a favorite while Arizona has been incredible as an underdog, winning four straight and eight of their last 10 overall.
There's considerable value on the Diamondbacks to pull off an upset. Arizona has won two straight against the Dodgers and Bumgarner's four-leaf clover can propel them to a victory tonight as well. After an emotional win last night, Los Angeles may come out a bit flat.
But honestly, the Diamondbacks' horrific bullpen terrifies me. Closer Mark Melancon has been one of the worst pitchers in the sport and I can't trust him. Instead, I'll back Arizona in the first five innings to put some pressure on the home squad.
Pick: Diamondbacks First Five Innings (+190)
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