Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 1 (Strive for Mediocrity)
By Josh Yourish
Arizona’s road trip continues as they head up from Atlanta to Cleveland. It hasn’t been going well for the snakes thus far after a 1-0 loss wrapped up a sweep for the Braves yesterday. The Diamondbacks are now 45-56 and have begun selling off pieces prior to tomorrow's deadline.
Cleveland has managed to stay afloat in the AL Central, and are now just one game behind Minnesota for the top spot in what is arguably the MLB’s weakest division. The Guardians are 52-49 after taking two of three from the Rays, who coincidentally just acquired David Peralta from the Diamondbacks.
Tonight, Zach Davies goes for the D-backs and Cal Quantrill for the Guardians.
You can find odds for this interleague matchup at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155)
- Guardians -1.5 (+127)
Moneyline
- Diamondbacks +139
- Guardians -149
Total
- 9.0 (Over -120 / Under +100)
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Zach Davies is returning to make his first start since June 25. In his 15 starts this season, Davies has a 2-4 record and a 3.94 ERA. That doesn’t look all that different from Cal Quantrill’s 7-5 record and 3.97 ERA. However, when you dig a little deeper you can see that tonight might be a bit of a mismatch on the mound.
Quantrill’s expected ERA of 4.71 is in the bottom 20% of the league. So is his expected slugging and his expected weighted on base average. His strikeout rate is in the bottom 7% of the league. The big change from a year ago is his cutter, which was a -11 run value pitch last season and has an 8 run value this year.
Zach Davies numbers are about as average as you can get. His xERA, expected batting average, and xwOBA are all right around the 50th percentile in the league. His ability to miss bats ranks much lower, but he doesn’t get hit hard. He is certainly mediocre, but sometimes mediocrity is enough.
The Diamondbacks are 22-11 when they don’t allow a home run and with Davies only allowing 10 in his 15 starts this year to go with allowing an average exit velocity of 86.2 MPH, which ranks in the top 10% of the league, a long ball could be hard to come by.
Pick: Diamondbacks +139
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