Betsided

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Thursday, April 21 (Sharp Movement Towards Under in D.C.)

By Ben Heisler

The Washington Nationals celebrate their 1-0 victory Tuesday evening over the Arizona Diamondbacks. They play their rubber game this afternoon in D.C.
The Washington Nationals celebrate their 1-0 victory Tuesday evening over the Arizona Diamondbacks. They play their rubber game this afternoon in D.C. / Mitchell Layton/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

Two struggling National League teams wrap up their series in D.C. this afternoon when the Washington Nationals host the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Washington took the first two games of the series, limiting the Diamondbacks offense to just one run in each of the first two games before being smacked 11-2 in Game 3 on Wednesday.

Both offenses have struggled to find consistency, but with the wind blowing out at Nats Park today, could that provide a bit of boost on the scoreboard?

Here's the latest odds from WynnBET for today's finale in D.C.

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-175)
  • Nationals: -1.5 (+145)

Moneyline:

  • Diamondbacks: +118
  • Nationals: -128

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -125/Under +105)

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

The total has taken a sharp turn down in today's mid-afternoon matchup. The opening line was a consensus 10.5 runs before dropping as much as two full runs over at WynnBET. There's still heavy juice on the over at 8.5 at -125, but I'll follow the sharps here and back the under with plus-odds to boot.

Both offenses are amongst the worst in the Majors. Via Fangraphs' Offense (OFF), a statistic that measures both batting and base running runs, the Nationals and Diamondbacks rank third and second-worst in baseball respectively.

As for today's pitchers, Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies has been better over his career in day games; pitching to a 2.49 strikeout-walk ratio (highest amongst his splits) and an ERA of 4.07. Nationals left-hander Josh Rogers, while not as sharp his last time out, has still kept the ball in the park while pitching to a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 3.28 through his first two games.

Each team has also played to the under quite a bit in the early going both home and away. Washington is 5-2 in unders this season at home, while Arizona is 4-2 in unders away from Chase Field.

While I regret not jumping on the line sooner, I still like the plus-value offered to take the under between two terrible offenses.

LEAN: UNDER 8.5 (+105)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

Baseball season is off and running, but so are the NBA Playoffs! Check out the BetSided team's best picks for the Eastern Conference and Western Conference Finals!

Home/MLB Odds