Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Monday, June 20 (Pitching Matchup Gives Under Value)

The 32-36 Arizona Diamondbacks have won three of four as they travel to San Diego to open a series with the 41-27 Padres tonight at 9:40 PM EST.

Yu Darvish pitches for the Padres, who have lost three straight. After allowing just one run over his last two starts, he's been spectacular at home with a 1.35 ERA over five outings.

Arizona counters with Zach Davies, who has a 1.31 ERA in June with three straight quality starts. He hasn't allowed a home run and only walked three batters this month, though he hasn't yet secured a June win thanks to the Diamondbacks' sputtering lineup.

Can they flip the script today and give Davies a win or will Darvish continue his dominance at home?

To find the value, let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for this Diamondbacks vs Padres matchup:

Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
• Padres -1.5 (+115)

Moneyline:

• Diamondbacks: +152
• Padres: -165

Total:

• 7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction and Pick

This is a fantastic pitching matchup as both starters are on fire.

Darvish has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts and should find success against a Diamondbacks lineup that's ranked 29th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks. The Padres are 4-1 in his home starts with their only loss coming by one run. He's limiting walks and striking batters out with a fire brimming from confidence:

Arizona strikes out at the fourth-highest rate in MLB, averaging nearly 10 per game on the road, so I think Darvish will generate swings-and-misses all evening against an overmatched Diamondbacks club.

But Zach Davies should pitch well too. The Padres lead MLB in OPS against righty's in the last two weeks but had two series with the dreadful Rockies pitching staff. San Diego is only 21st in OPS against right-handed pitchers on the season. With Manny Machado injured, I expect their lineup to revert to what we've seen most of the year instead of the last two weeks.

And Davies may actually be pitching better than Darvish right now. He's in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity and seems to have found his groove. After only making it to the sixth inning once in the first two months, he's thrown at least six innings in three straight starts and has allowed just 18 base runners in 20.2 June innings.

With two strong pitchers and lineups I don't trust, I'm going to the under. It's 5-0 in Darvish's home starts this year and and 9-3 in his starts overall, including hitting in five straight games. The under has hit in four straight games Davies has pitched as well, and is 10-3 in his outings on the season.

It's a low total, but back the under to improve to 20-10-1 in Padres home matchups.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.