Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 17 (Trust Kelly as Road Underdog)
By Joe Summers
What do you get when you pair two struggling teams in need of a win? Today's Diamondbacks vs Padres matchup, of course!
Just 7-13 over their last 20, the Padres are clinging to their playoff Wild Card positioning and hope for a big outing from Mike Clevinger today. But after not allowing more than three runs in any of his first seven outings, Clevinger surrendered four in each of his last two.
On the other side, Merrill Kelly tries to snap a four-game losing streak for Arizona. He's thrown three consecutive quality starts and sports a sparkling 6-1 record on the road.
Which club will get the crucial victory? To find out, let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160)
- Padres -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline:
- Diamondbacks: +140
- Padres: -150
Total:
- 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction and Pick
If I could bet on neither club to win, I'd do that. But unfortunately, that's not quite how this whole thing works.
In my eyes, this is a close matchup that could go either way. The Diamondbacks are 3-8 in their last 11 as road underdogs while the Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 as a home favorite. I'm forced to side with the one variable I feel I can trust, and that's Merrill Kelly.
#Dbacks RHP Merrill Kelly has allowed 2 ER or less in 11 of 18 (61%) starts, and 4 of his last 5.
— Arizona Diamondbacks - Stats & Info (@DbacksStatsInfo) July 12, 2022
He allowed 2 ER or less in 11 of his 27 (41%) starts in 2021, and 14 of his 32 (44%) starts in 2019.
Kelly's 3.36 ERA places him 16th amongst all qualified NL starting pitchers.
The 33-year-old righty overcame a mid-season blip and seems to have found his groove again. He's been stellar in three straight outings, compiling a 2.24 ERA in the process, and held the Padres scoreless in his first start of the year. Arizona has four consecutive road wins behind him and there's too much value at +140 odds to pass up on.
Mike Clevinger has lasted through the sixth inning just twice on the year and looks shaky right now. Neither lineup can be depended on, but I've got much more faith in Kelly's ability to give us six solid innings than Clevinger's.
Arizona is 4-1 in Kelly's last five starts as an underdog. With San Diego's poor 5-11 outright record in its last 16 as a favorite, I'll stick with the variable I can trust.
Pick: Diamondbacks (+140)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.