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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Saturday, June 11 (Fade Arizona with Bumgarner on Mound)

By Matt De Saro

Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds / Dylan Buell/GettyImages
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I can’t help but feel like the Arizona Diamondbacks are the worst 28-31 team I have seen in a long time. While that is oddly specific, I mean that this team has no business being almost .500 from where I sit. Watching them, looking at their stats, and seeing that they just keep winning games doesn’t add up to me.

The Phillies, on the other hand, might be one of the best sub-.500 teams in the league right now. Especially considering they have played the second-toughest schedule in the MLB over the first two months. Their offense has the capability to ruin any pitcher’s night but got off to a slow start. Since then, however, things have picked up and the Phillies took a seven-game winning streak into this series opener on Friday night.

They scored in double digits twice during that run and six or more runs in six of seven. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of consensus sportsbooks:

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-130)
  • Phillies: -1.5 (+110)

Moneyline:

  • Diamondbacks: +160
  • Phillies: -190

Total:

  • Total 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Now that the Phillies offense has discovered its groove, this becomes a very dangerous team. Even when they were struggling, the Phillies still put up good numbers on offense. They currently rank fourth in slugging,  fifth in runs per game, and seventh in hits per game. This is going to be a massive issue for Madison Bumgarner today if he can’t get himself back on track. To be honest, I don't see that happening. 

Madbum started the year off in classic form with a 1.17 ERA in five starts during April. However, that start all came crashing down after posting a 5.33 ERA in 25 ⅓ innings in May. June hasn’t been much better and Bumgarner is coming off an embarrassing loss to the lowly Reds. The worst team in the league dropped four runs and eight hits on Bumgarner in five innings. 

Bumgarner is heading in the wrong direction still and cannot be trusted against a red-hot Phillies offense. This game is on blowout alert and I love the value that the Phillies have on the run line. 

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+110)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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