Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Prediction and Odds For Saturday, July 2 (Terrible Pitching Matchup Gives Two Bets Value)
By Joe Summers
The 35-42 Arizona Diamondbacks have won three of four as they continue their three-game series in Colorado with the 33-44 Rockies tonight at 9:10 PM EST.
Dallas Keuchel makes his second start for Arizona after giving up four runs to the Tigers in his first game as Diamondback. On the season, Keuchel has a 2-5 record and 7.88 ERA.
Austin Gomber returns to the Colorado rotation after a few weeks as a reliever. He compiled a 9.00 ERA in June as the Rockies are 1-6 in his last seven starts.
Can Gomber prove he's better than a bullpen arm or will Arizona stay hot behind Keuchel? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find the value in this Diamondbacks vs Rockies matchup:
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-145)
- Rockies -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline:
- Diamondbacks: +130
- Rockies: -140
Total:
- 12.0 (Over -120/Under +100)
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction and Pick
This is one of the highest totals I've seen this year, but it's warranted. These starting pitchers are baaad.
Dallas Keuchel has a 14.26 ERA in his last three starts, issuing nine walks in that span. Colorado has the second-highest OPS against left-handed pitchers on the year and should have no problem doing damage against the newest addition to Arizona's rotation.
But I expect the Diamondbacks to score as well. In Austin Gomber's last four starts before moving to the bullpen, he had a 13.50 ERA. Not quite as bad as Keuchel, but still horrible! Arizona doesn't hit left-handed pitchers as well as Colorado, but Gomber's struggles should render that a moot point.
Neither club has a good bullpen and while Arizona is a strong defensive team, the Rockies are not. Thus, the combination of factors leads me to an over bet. It's 7-0-1 in Colorado's last eight as home favorites and 7-3 in Keuchel's last 10 outings.
But I admittedly like the value on the visitors too. Keuchel's 4.41 expected ERA implies he's been unlucky and is a better mark than Gomber's (5.26). Keuchel has been bad, but I can't turn down big plus odds to fade Gomber. Colorado is 1-6 in his last seven starts and lost four of five as home favorites.
This should be a shootout, and I'll take the squad with the better bullpen to emerge victorious.
Pick: Diamondbacks (+130) and Over 12.0 (-120)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.