Don't Expect Much From Brooks Koepka at Byron Nelson
By Brian Giuffra
Brooks Koepka gritted his teeth over two days at Augusta National, playing in the Masters and missing the cut less than a month after right knee surgery. He didn't look healthy then, needing to put all the pressure on his left knee when bending over to line up putts, but he makes his return to the PGA Tour this week at the AT&T Byron Nelson ahead of the PGA Championship.
Don't expect much in his return.
Koepka is currently tied as the sixth betting favorite to win the Byron Nelson at WynnBET with +2000 odds (bet $100 to win $2000 if he wins). That seems astronomically high considering Koepka's history returning to play on Tour after long layoffs.
Brooks Koepka is competing at the AT&T Byron Nelson after a five-week absence. Over the past two years, he's had six breaks of at least five weeks, for injuries or other reasons. His results in the first event back: MC-MC-28th-32nd-34th-MC.
— Jason Sobel (@JasonSobelTAN) May 11, 2021
As Sobel points out, Koepka has been 50-50 to miss the cut in his return to play following a five week absence on Tour. WynnBET has Koepka's odds to make the cut at -350 and to miss the cut at +240. That +240 value is a lot more appealing than -350, though it does feel 50-50 even if the odds suggest otherwise.
Koepka is using this tournament as a warm up ahead of next week's PGA Championship. He undoubtably wants to make the cut for, among other reasons, to see how his body holds up over four days in a tournament setting. The last time he played a full tournament was February. At the Masters, he shot 5-over. He's also missed three other cuts earlier this year.
Regardless, betting Koepka to win feels like needlessly burning money. This is all about getting into a tournament flow, seeing how his knee feels and trying to tighten up his game ahead of the year's second major.
Koepka has always said that's what he cares about winning above all -- majors. Don't expect him to put as much emphasis on a tune-up.