Do You Really Want to Bet Against Tom Brady and Bucs vs. the Rams?

Tom Brady will play in his first home game in the NFL Divisional Round as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday vs. the L.A. Rams.
Tom Brady will play in his first home game in the NFL Divisional Round as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday vs. the L.A. Rams. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had to plunder on the road for three straight weeks before returning home for the Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs.

This year, however, he'll enjoy a little more home cooking, as well as some likely better weather during his playoff run.

Fresh off their Wild Card Weekend victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, the Bucs are 3-point favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook over the Los Angeles Rams when they match up at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Sunday afternoon. The total in Sunday's game currently sits at 49 after opening at 48.5.

The Bucs have been one of the league's best teams this season at home, going 7-2 against the spread (ATS) with a margin of victory of more than 16 points according to But the Rams present an intriguing matchup. They've already beaten Brady and the Bucs 34-24 back in Week 3 in Los Angeles, and are coming off a major win against the Arizona Cardinals.

Los Angeles also just got back running back Cam Akers who appears to be fully recovered from his Achilles injury that he suffered in the preseason. The second-year running back racked up 95 total yards on Monday night and appears to be all systems go.

Is now the time to fade Brady, even during a dominant home stretch vs. the number?

Tom Brady Is Nearly Unstoppable in the Divisional Round

The Divisional Round has been Brady's wheelhouse over the course of his career. In his 22-year career, Brady has played in 16 total games in this round, going 14-2 straight up in those matchups. At home, Brady has gone 12-1 in those games.

Against the spread at home, he's 8-4-1 ATS during his time with the Patriots. He has yet to play a home playoff game in this round of the postseason during his tenure with the Bucs.

While numbers play a unique trend in determining this stat, Brady played the bulk of those playoff home games in cold New England temperatures. With L.A. coming to Tampa, the weather should be much more conducive to their home field at SoFi Stadium.

The Rams are also one of two teams this season that are undefeated as an underdog; going 2-0 ATS. Only the Packers finished with a better number at 4-0 ATS.

Ultimately, Brady has been nearly unbeatable in this round of his playoff career, but as I mentioned on FanSided's Stacking the Box show earlier today (full video below), I think the Rams are very much live for an upset.