Don’t count the San Diego Padres out just yet!
The Padres got to Los Angeles Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw early in Game 2, while their bullpen held on to win 5-3 and steal a game in L.A.
Now, the series shifts back to San Diego with Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA) on the mound for the Padres against Tony Gonsolin (16-1, 2.14 ERA).
The Dodgers certainly don’t want to fall down 2-1 with Game 4 being in San Diego, but the Padres have already upset the New York Mets in the playoffs. Los Angeles went 14-5 against the Padres in the regular season, but does that matter as much in the postseason?
Let’s get into the odds and make a pick for Game 3 of the NLDS:
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
I can’t say enough good things about the Padres for stepping up in the playoffs, but Snell concerns me the most of their top three starters, as he struggled against the New York Mets in the wild card round.
My other concern with Snell comes in his performances against Los Angeles this season, as he lasted just five, four and five innings in his three starts against them. Snell’s worst start came on Sept. 10, allowing five runs in four innings, but he did pitch well in the other two games.
Snell compiled 18 strikeouts and allowed just one run over 10.0 innings in those other two starts, but that also means the Padres could have to rely on their bullpen for a second straight game.
The bullpen held up in Game 2, but does that happen twice in a row against a tough Dodgers lineup?
If there’s anything the Dodgers do, it’s win Tony Gonsolin’s starts, as he’s gone 16-1 this season with the team going 19-5 in his 24 starts. Gonsolin dominated the Padres in two regular season starts, allowing just seven hits and one earned run in 12.2 innings pitched.
I love the Padres’ fight, but this is too short of a price on the moneyline for me not to take the Dodgers. The season-long sample size tells me that the Dodgers are due to bounce back against a team they handled pretty well in 2022.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.