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Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Sunday, April 24 (Clayton Kershaw Looks to Rebound)

By Matt De Saro

Los Angeles Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw.
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw. / Kevork Djansezian/GettyImages
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The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres clash tonight in the third game of their three-game series. These NL West rivals split the first two games and are both sending out the big guns for this rubber match. 

The Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw while the Padres hope that Sean Manaea can get the job done for the Friars. The Dodgers have a better offense that will challenge Manea. But, Kershaw is coming off a rough start against the Braves and will need to work past that tonight. 

The Dodgers maintain the lead in the NL West at 10-4 while the Padres are third at 10-6. But, the division is very tight right now with just one game separating first and fourth. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Dodgers: -1.5 (+110)
  • Padres: +1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Dodgers: -160
  • Padres: +150

Total:

  • Total 7 (Over -105/Under -115)

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Dodgers might have broken a cardinal rule of baseball during Kershaw’s first start, but I am starting to believe it was the right call. There are so many reasons not to let Kershaw go over his pitch count in the first start of the year. I think he actually did let him go over and it backfired a little in his second start. While the Dodgers managed to win that game, Kershaw gave up four earned runs in five innings. He surrendered two home runs and struck out half as many batters as in his first game. I think that his first start left him fatigued and it's possible he’s still dealing with the fallout of that. 

However, I think that he’s good enough to get back on track tonight. He is doing a lot of little things early on that give me hope that he is fully locked in. I mean, he basically started the season with a perfect game.

According to Baseball Savant, Kershaw ranks in the 90th percentile or above in xBA, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, xwOBA, and xERA. His slider has been his best pitch this year with a vertical drop rate of 31.1 inches. That is the best mark of his career and he’s throwing them at a higher rate than in recent seasons. 

Kershaw continues to be a strikeout machine and the Padres actually rank third in the MLB in total strikeouts at 145. I think this will be the Friars’ downfall as they waste a potentially great start from Manaea. 

Pick: Dodgers -160 to win 

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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