Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, September 28 (Julio Urias Has Been Lights Out)

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias.
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias. / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres sit in the second wild card spot in the National League heading into a Wednesday matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

San Diego has no chance at catching the loser of the NL East (the New York Mets or Atlanta Braves) in the wild card hunt, but it still holds a 2.5-game lead on the Philadelphia Phillies, who sit in the No. 3 spot in the wild card.  

The Padres have All-Star Joe Musgrove (10-7, 3.12 ERA) on the mound for Wednesday’s game. He will take lefty Julio Urias (17-7, 2.25 ERA). 

This should be a fantastic pitching matchup between two division rivals, so how should we bet it?

Here are the latest odds for this game: 

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Padres took the opening game of this series and are now on a three-game winning streak heading into Wednesday’s showdown. 

Musgrove, who hasn't been as sharp this month (3.92 ERA across four starts), is a formidable opponent for Urias, who has watched the Dodgers go 20-9 in his starts this season. 

In fact, Urias is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball, as Los Angeles has won 16 of the last 17 games that he’s started. He also has allowed two or fewer runs in 12 straight starts, pitching to a shocking 1.33 ERA over that stretch. 

No matter how well Musgrove pitches, that is going to be tough to match. There are two bets I actually like in this game, one being the Dodgers to keep up this crazy streak and win with Urias on the mound. 

The other is the UNDER, with the total currently sitting at 7.5. Musgrove has allowed seven runs in 12.1 innings against Los Angeles this season, and the Padres rank 13th in MLB in bullpen ERA. 

If Urias stays hot and holds this lineup down, I think the Padres can be trusted to not let this game get out of hand, especially with Musgrove starting.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.