Dolphins vs. Bengals Best Bets for Thursday Night Football (Ja'Marr Chase Is Target Hog)
By Peter Dewey
The Miami Dolphins put their 3-0 record to the test once again on Thursday Night Football against the Cincinnati Bengals.
After a slow start to the 2022 season, the Bengals picked up their first win in Week 3 against the New York Jets. The defending AFC Champions have struggled to protect quarterback Joe Burrow, but they hope that is behind them when they face Miami at home on Thursday.
The Bengals are currently 3.5-point favorites in this game following the news that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (back, ankle) is expected to play on Thursday night.
#Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa — listed as questionable with back and ankle issues — is expected to play tonight against the #Bengals, barring a setback, per sources.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) September 29, 2022
WR Jaylen Waddle (groin) and LT Terron Armstead (toe) should be good to go, too.
The BetSided team has you covered with props, anytime touchdown picks and a same-game parlay for this matchup. Here are my best bets for Dolphins-Bengals in Week 4:
Best Bets for Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football
- Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (-110)
- Ja’Marr Chase OVER 5.5 Receptions (-128)
- Raheem Mostert UNDER 39.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (-110)
I would love for this line to come down to three or event 2.5, but I’m not sure that it will.
Still, I am going to fade this Miami team following a strong 3-0 start where just about everything has gone its way. Not only did the Buffalo Bills squander multiple chances to score in Week 3, but the Dolphins won in Week 2 behind an epic collapse from Baltimore’s defense.
With Tagovailoa at less than 100 percent and on a short week, I think Cincy has the edge here. The Bengals lost each of their first two games on game-ending field goals, and they turned the ball over five times in Week 1.
The team looked much better, albeit against a bad Jets team, in Week 3. I think Burrow and company carry some of that momentum over into tonight’s matchup.
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 5.5 Receptions (-130)
I love this line for Ja’Marr Chase, who has made 10, five and six catches through the first three weeks of the season while being targeted 35 times.
Chase is going to see around double-digit looks in every game this season, and even on a day where he had just 29 receiving yards in Week 3, he found a way to finish with six catches.
The Dolphins have a solid secondary, but they also have played in some fast-paced games. I think this has the potential to be a shootout, and that benefits Chase in every way.
Raheem Mostert UNDER 39.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Raheem Mostert’s snap counts have increased in each week this season, but I’m fading him here against a sneaky solid Cincinnati run defense.
The Bengals are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry this season, and Mostert is averaging 3.3 yards per attempt on his 24 rushes in 2022.
Mostert did clear this line with 51 yards on 11 carries in Week 2, but he has 13 rushes for just 27 yards in his other two games. Chase Edmonds is going to get some of the work in this backfield, so unless Mostert breaks a big one, 40 yards seems like too many to ask in this game.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.