Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 14 (Tua vs. Herbert a 2020 Draft Referendum)
By Josh Yourish
The 49ers put the Miami Dolphins in their place in Week 13 and told the rest of the NFL to slow down with the Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa hype. The Dolphins started the game with a 74-yard touchdown to Trent Sherfield, but they didn’t get much after that in the 33-17 loss.
However, that won’t be the storyline in this game; it'll be Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert the 5th and 6th picks in the 2020 draft.
The Chargers need their quarterback to come through and win this game after a loss to Las Vegas has LA at 6-6.
Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds, Spread and Total
Los Angeles and Miami Betting Trends
- LA is 7-5 ATS
- Miami is 6-6 ATS
- Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last five
- Over is 5-1 in LA’s last six vs. a team with a winning record.
Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction and Pick
Justin Herbert is the better quarterback, in my opinion, but is LA wasting his talents at 6-6? They have a strong roster, but it just doesn’t seem like Bradon Staley was ready to be a head coach. He isn’t elevating this roster and helping his star QB, so I expect Tua to outduel him this week.
Now, you might be thinking, “Tua just played a horrendous game against the 49ers, how can you trust him?” Well San Fran had one specific player that changed everything for the Miami offense. The Dolphins heavily target the intermediate third of the field, they do it more than any team in the NFL.
This area of the field is so vital to their passing attack, because Tua hits Tyreek Hill or Waddle in stride with room to run after the catch.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 38 completions targeting the intermediate middle third of the field this season, 16 more than any other QB.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 1, 2022
In 2021 under OC Mike McDaniel, Jimmy Garoppolo led the NFL with 45 completions targeting the same area of the field.#MIAvsSF | #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/ws52QeNEgW
Fred Warner, completely took that part of the field away. He is easily one of the best coverage linebackers in football and he allowed the Niners to shut down this offense. They also decided to use a lot of press coverage against Hill and Waddle which forced Tua to hold on the ball and pressure to get home with Terron Armstead out at left tackle.
Well, the blueprint is out right? Wrong. Teams can watch all the tape of what DeMeco Ryans did to Mike McDaniel, but they don’t have Fred Warner on their roster and he might be the only player in the league that can make this type of performance possible.
certified Fred Warner moment pic.twitter.com/jVcds9E4Cd
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) December 5, 2022
Pick: Dolphins -3 (+100)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change