Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds Movement: Spread Shifts Drastically in Kansas City's Favor
By Peter Dewey
There has been some massive line movement in the Kansas City Chiefs' matchup against the Miami Dolphins on NFL Wild Card Weekend.
After opening as a 3.5-point favorite, the Chiefs have already climbed to 4.5-point favorites in this game. The majority of the money at BetMGM is on the Chiefs to cover the spread.
.@Chiefs spread vs. Dolphins
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 11, 2024
-3.5: Open
-4: This morning
-4.5: Now
85% of money is on Chiefs to cover at @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/YFcS0Hx57h
It makes sense that bettors are leaning towards the Chiefs, as the team already beat the Dolphins this season, and Miami is dealing with a ton of injuries. Miami comes into this game down Bradley Chubb, Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jaelan Phillips, and Cam Goode on defense. The team is also expected to be without star cornerback Xavien Howard.
The weather is also going to be a factor in Kansas City, as it's expected to be extremely cold, a bad sign for the Dolphins -- based on their franchise history.
Since January 2017, the Dolphins are:
— Fanatics Sportsbook | PB (@fanaticsbook_pb) January 10, 2024
0-11 overall when the temperature is below 40
1-17 overall when the temperature is below 49 pic.twitter.com/HRuh6Uo1Eu
However, it is worth noting that the Dolphins were covered in a cold-weather game in Buffalo last season, although they still lost the game outright.
Here's a look at the latest odds for Dolphins-Chiefs:
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total
Patrick Mahomes is 10-2 straight up at home in his NFL playoff career, and he's gone 4-3 against the spread when favored by 3.5 or more points in the postseason.
The cold weather doesn't seem to bother Mahomes, as he's 4-1 ATS when the temperature is below 32 degrees.
Some betting notes ahead of Dolphins vs. Chiefs:
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) January 8, 2024
Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs:
11-3 SU, 9-5-0 ATS | 8-5-0 ATS as a favorite
As a FAV of 3.5 pts or more: 4-3-0 ATS
With temp. of 32 degrees or below: 4-1-0 ATS
Current total of 43.5 would be the lowest of his playoff career. pic.twitter.com/A0N7Pc5YFl
Kansas City is going to lean on its defense -- No. 2 in the NFL in points allowed per game -- to win this game, as the offense has scored more than 30 points just three times in the 2023 season.
It'll be interesting to see if the late-line movement gives the Dolphins a chance to steal a cover this week.
Whether you decide to bet on the Chiefs or Dolphins, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook on Wild Card Weekend.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.