Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 5 (Teddy 'Covers' Bridgewater Returns)

Even without their starting quarterback, the AFC East still goes through Miami.

Temporarily, at least.

The division-leading Miami Dolphins lost their first game of the season back on Thursday Night Football in Week 4 to the Cincinnati Bengals after losing starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a scary head injury, forcing backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater into the starting role.

Now, Bridgewater is the No. 1 option for Week 5 off extended rest as the Dolphins head back on the road to face the New York Jets in their third division matchup of the young season.

New York is just a game back at 2-2, and has yet to face any AFC East team yet this season. Both of their wins, as well as their victories against the spread have come on the road, including a stunning comeback down 10 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Can the Jets change their fortune with their first win and/or cover at home this week?

Here's a look at the latest odds for Sunday afternoon in the Meadowlands.

Dolphins vs. Jets Odds, Spread and Total

Dolphins vs. Jets Betting Trends

Dolphins:

• Miami 4-1 ATS in the last five games and 4-1 ATS vs. AFC
• Miami 14-6-1 ATS since 2021 after a straight up loss
• Unders are 9-3 in the last 12 games vs. AFC & AFC East
• Dolphins 4-1-1 ATS in last nine games vs. New York

Jets:

• New York 5-1 ATS in last six home games vs. teams above .500
• New York 2-7 ATS in last nine games after an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in last seven after a SU win
• Over 5-1 in Jets last six games vs. above .500 teams

Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction and Pick

I grabbed the Dolphins at -3 at the start of the day and haven't looked back.

There's a few reasons in play. The primary one is the Jets, despite their 2-2 record are not a good football team, and are a few plays away from staring at an 0-4 start to the year, if not for brutal collapses down the stretch at home from the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. New York ranks 25th in Football Outsiders' Total Team DVOA this season (-13.5%), while the Dolphins rank second (20.6%) in team offense.

Mike McDaniel is a legitimate NFL Coach of the Year favorite, trailing only Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni at FanDuel Sportsbook, and Miami has had terrific gameplans in nearly every game to start the year.

Let's also not forget who will be under center for Miami. Teddy Bridgewater has been elite at covering the spread over his his career, going 42-20-1 ATS as a starter, and an astonishing 24-6 ATS on the road.

Maybe the Dolphins toy with the Jets a little at home and let them hang around, but this line should be closer to 4 or 4.5, and I'll happily oblige on the 3.