Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction and Odds for Week 17 (Can Bettors Trust Turnover Tua?)
By Josh Yourish
The Miami Dolphins have lost four-straight games and are now in very real danger of missing the postseason at 8-7. There’s even a chance that they end the year without a winning record with two interdivisional matchups the next two weeks.
They’ll first head up to Foxborough to take on the 7-8 New England Patriots in Week 17. The Pats don’t exactly look like a juggernaut, but facing Bill Bellichick is never too fun, especially for quarterbacks with real limitations (*cough cough Tua cough cough*).
Maybe Mike McDaniel will figure things out and all will be well in Miami, or maybe this will be a disastrous collapse for the NFL’s new wonderboy and his once MVP-candidate quarterback.
Let’s check out the odds:
Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total
New England and Miami Betting Trends
- New England is 7-7-1 ATS
- Miami is 7-8 ATS
- The Over is 5-1 in Miami’s last six road games
- The Under is 4-0 in New England’s last four games vs. AFC East
- Miami is 4-0 ATS in last four meetings
Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick
New England looked dead at the start of the game against Cincinnati on Saturday, but they ended up putting a real scare in the Bengals. Late in the 4th quarter, they looked like they were going to complete the comeback and win it, but a Rhamondre Stevenson fumble cost them the chance.
Speaking of a turnover costing your team, Tagovailoa had three in Week 16 at home; throwing three interceptions against Green Bay. Despite only 16 completions going for an incredible 310 yards and a touchdown, the turnovers ultimately did them in as the Packers shut out Miami in the second half.
The last time these teams played, Tua went 23/33 for 270 yards and one touchdown, Miami didn’t care to run they ball at all, they just got it into Tyreek Hill’s hands and he took over. I imagine that’ll be the strategy again, but Bellichick might find a way to put a cap on this offense.
I struggle to trust Tua and McDaniel after four straight losses. It seems like the blueprint is out on how to throw off the timing of their offense. Once Tua gets uncomfortable and doesn't trust what he’s sees after a three-step drop, then he gets flustered, and consequently, the turnovers come.
Mac Jones was booed at home against Cincinnati, but ended up nearly bringing them back. I want to pick New England to get the upset, but I just don’t trust this offense to score enough and be mistake-free down the stretch.
The under is 4-0 in New England’s last four against the AFC North, so I’ll ride that trend.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change