Don't Fall for the Titans Jig if They Become the No. 1 Seed in the AFC
The Tennessee Titans all but locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Week 17 when they took down the Dolphins and the Chiefs lost to the Bengals, but that doesn't mean we should crown them the top contenders in the conference.
WynnBET currently has them listed at +425 (bet $100 to profit $425) to win the AFC and +1200 (bet $100 to profit $1,200) to win the Super Bowl and I would advise you to stay far away from those wagers.
I've been vocal on Twitter that I think the Titans have the most fraudulent record in the NFL. Meaning that I don't think they're nearly as good as their record indicates.
Don't let the Titans getting the No. 1 seed distract you from the fact that they're still a below average football team.
— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) January 2, 2022
Titans fans have taken offense to this, based on the replies to the tweet and the DMs I've received since sending it, but virtually every single statistic and analytic that you can find will back up my claim. For example, ESPN Sports Analytics Writer Seth Walder mentions that their numbers also seem to share my sentiment.
Saw @PFF_Moo mention this and our numbers agree: the Titans may earn the No. 1 seed but they're also one of the worst teams in the AFC playoff field.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 3, 2022
If Colts and Chargers grab final two spots, Titans would rank 6th among AFC teams in FPI rating, with a chance to drop to 7th.
Tennessee Titans Season Rankings
If you want to see further proof, here are some numbers of where the Titans rank heading into the final week of the regular season:
- 24th in yards per play (5.1)
- 17th in opponent yards per play (5.3)
- 16th in points per play (0.366)
- 10th in opponent points per play (0.335)
- 25th in turnovers per game (1.6)
- 21st in yards per pass attempt (6.9)
- 15th in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.5)
- 19th in offensive success rate (47%)
Of course, you would probably counter this argument by stating that they've played a good portion of their games without one of the best players in the league in Derrick Henry. I would then reply by letting you know that they're getting the exact same level of production from the running back position without him than what they got with him.
The @Titans are the 1 seed in the AFC. Surely, there season was supposed to end when Derrick Henry got injured, right?
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) January 3, 2022
Umm… pic.twitter.com/F247jDUpKd
Numbers don't lie.
Are the Titans a bad team? Absolutely not.
But don't start planning the Super Bowl victory parade route in Nashville, and CERTAINLY don't rush to the betting window to bet on the Titans to win it all. It's simply not a smart bet to make.
Tennessee is an 11-point favorite against the Texans in Week 18. It will lock up the No. 1 seed with a win.