Don't Bet On Rory McIlroy To Win The PGA Championship
The 2021 edition of the PGA Championship is set to take place this week, and WynnBET has Rory McIlroy set as the +1200 favorite (bet $100 to win $1200).
There are a handful of reasons why McIlroy is set as the betting favorite to capture his third PGA Championship. Most notably, the Northern Irishman snapped his 18-month winless drought two weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship and won the PGA Championship in 2012 the last time it was hosted at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island Golf Resort.
Those two signs may seduce you into wagering on him to win this weekend. I’m here to tell you not to do it. Rory McIlroy will NOT win the 2021 PGA Championship.
Don’t allow one win over the past 18 months as well as a win from almost a decade ago cloud your judgement. Previous to the Wells Fargo Championship, McIlroy had missed the cut in three of six events, including missing it at the Masters as well as the Players Championship.
As recently as two months ago, McIlroy went on record saying that he hasn’t been comfortable with his swing after trying to make changes to it late last year.
"I'd be lying if I said it wasn't anything to do with what Bryson did at the U.S. Open."
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 13, 2021
Rory McIlroy discusses his quest for more speed and the swing issues he's been struggling with as a result. pic.twitter.com/mFWJmuaZDT
So, is that it? All he needed was to take a couple of weeks off and play well for one weekend and now he’s all the way back? I don’t buy it.
A lot of people are pointing to his performance at Kiawah in 2012 as evidence that he should be able to replicate that success this year. There are those claiming his distance off the tee is what led him to that victory.
What a lot of people don’t know is it wasn’t necessarily his driving that won him the 2012 PGA Championship, but his scrambling. The Ocean Course at Kiawah is absolutely treacherous around the greens, a staple of Pete Dye designed courses.
McIlroy ranked first in scrambling percentage that week on his way to his eight-stroke victory in 2012. This year, he ranks just 113th on the PGA Tour in scrambling. Even in his win at Quail Hollow, McIlroy gained just +0.06 strokes around the greens compared to the field.
Golf media will focus on the length of Kiawah this week, but the tournament will be won or lost around the greens and that is exactly where McIlroy has struggled this season.
It was great to see McIlroy back in the winner’s circle, but don’t let that win convince you he’s going to win his third PGA Championship this week. Maybe you should look at betting on some other Europeans instead.