Don't Buy Vegas Overreaction for Nets vs. Celtics in Game 2 Odds (Bet the UNDER in Brooklyn-Boston)

One game sample sizes typically leads to an overreaction in betting markets.

The Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets played an instant classic on Sunday afternoon, with Jayson Tatum's buzzer beater propelling Boston to a 1-0 series lead in what is shaping up to be one of the best postseason first round series in NBA history.

As we turn the page to Game 2, are the betting markets overreacting?

Let's take a look at the early odds from WynnBET Sportsbook and see if there is an early bet to make.

Nets vs. Celtics Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Nets: +3.5 (-110)
• Celtics: -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Nets: +135
• Celtics: -165

Total: 227.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nets vs. Celtics Prediction and Pick

Before we break down Game 2, let's look at where Game 1 closed: The Celtics closed as 4 point favorites with a total of 226.5. Of course, Boston won the game 115-114. So, what do we do with this Game 2 market?

The spread is sitting a half-point closer towards Brooklyn, which makes sense given how tight that game was in the fourth quarter. However, the total shot up a point. Are we sure that's warranted?

The game was played at a slower than average pace compared to the regular season, 97.5 possessions (Boston had 98 possessions, Nets 97), per NBA.com and was incredibly physical. There were plenty of free throw attempts (48 combined) to help boast this total up, but when the game was played in the half court, both defenses thrived.

The Celtics posted a 91.8 offensive rating in the half court, which is terrible. No other way around it. The Nets had the third best effective field goal percentage of the weekend, nearly 61%, but also bled the clock and struggled to generate second chances so they were one-and-done when they missed shots.

On defense, Brooklyn may be playing small in the frontcourt against a bulky Celtics frontcourt, but the team did a good job of shutting down Boston's offense when they avoided turnovers and second chances. The game was played at a methodical pace, but the game pushed over the total with a ton of free throws in the first half.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on adjustments. The Celtics did a fantastic job on Kevin Durant, he'll likely be better in Game 2, but again, the Nets are looking to play in the half court and lean on their incredible shot making with a few seconds left on the shot clock. On defense, Andre Drummond really struggled in 17 minutes, posting the worst defensive rating of all the 9 Nets that played (126 points allowed per 100 possessions).

The change for Brooklyn may be more Nic Claxton, who was the other big man in the rotation and posted the second best defensive rating on the team (109.8). Claxton is much more comfortable switching onto wings and showed he is more than capable of staying on the floor.

After 31 free throws in the first half and a total of 122 points scored. However, there were 17 in the second half and 107 points scored.

The Nets got a big effort from Kyrie Irving, who poured in 39 points, but the team wasn't running up and down the floor either. When the game was played in the half court there were simply not a ton of possessions, nor a ton quality looks for both teams, so I'm not sure this adjustment to the over is correct.

Think about it. All the incredible shot making we saw on both sides (not to mention free throws) and this total snuck over 226.5. Now, we are adjusting up? I'm just not sure the Game 1 score line that finished with 229 is replicable moving forward as its more likely the pace will be the same moving forward.

PICK: UNDER 227.5