Don't Take the Bait on Baker Mayfield Season Long Player Props with Panthers

Baker Mayfield hasn't even met the media in Charlotte, or gotten his photo taken with a Carolina Panthers jersey, but that hasn't stopped Vegas from taking bets on his upcoming fifth season in the league.

We're just over a full day since the former No. 1 overall pick was shipped off to Carolina for a conditional fifth-round NFL Draft pick, and oddsmakers have already turned odds around on Mayfield's prospects for 2022.

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, traders have put together three different props for Mayfield in 2022: Passing touchdowns, passing yards, and interceptions.

As of Thursday afternoon, Mayfield is projected for 22.5 passing touchdowns (OVER -120 | UNDER +100), 3800.5 passing yards (OVER -110 | UNDER -110), and 13.5 interceptions (OVER -110 | UNDER -110).

Let's break down each of the available options and determine whether the over or under is the smarter play.

Over/Under Baker Mayfield Passing Touchdowns

Mayfield should have his best supporting cast of skill position players in Carolina. He'll have an exceptional swiss-army knife all over the field with a healthy Christian McCaffrey, as well as newly re-signed wide receiver D.J. Moore, who somehow found a way to catch over 1,150 receiving yards with Sam Darnold, Cam Newton and P.J. Walker all taking snaps under center.

He's also proven to be fairly durable throughout his short career, only missing three games due to injury a season ago. He played a full season the two previous years, and once he took the job in his first year in Cleveland, he held onto it the rest of the way.

However, we still don't know if Mayfield will be anointed the starter ahead of training camp. Maybe this is a long-term play for Matt Rhule and company to buy themselves a little more time while they enter their third year just 10-23 through two seasons.

McCaffrey is fantastic when healthy, but he's played in just 10 games over the last two seasons. D.J. Moore continues to be a terrific receiving option, but has been limited to just four touchdowns in his last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Panthers enter 2022 with the eighth-worst offensive line ranking via Pro Football Focus, so Mayfield may spend the bulk of his season running for his life in a new offense he's having to pick up since July.

I think he gets above 20, but 23.5 on a desperate team feels like a stretch.

PICK: UNDER 23.5 (+100)

Over/Under Baker Mayfield Passing Yards

The Panthers finished with the third-worst passing offense in the league a season ago, and ranked 18th in the league in 2020. Even with a more secure option under center in Mayfield, that doesn't bode well for Mayfield to surpass a number he's only hit once in his career back in 2019.

The Panthers are projected to win 6.5 games this year, so there may be moments in garbage time where the passing game can thrive. But they're also in a division with two very good defenses in Tampa Bay and New Orleans, which also will play a factor in Mayfield's attempts downfield.

I think this number is far too high in his first year with a head coach on the hot seat.

PICK: UNDER 3,800.5 (-110)

Over/Under Baker Mayfield Interceptions

Mayfield threw a ton of picks his first two years in the league, but has improved noticeably in taking care of the football his last few seasons. Even with a 17/13 TD/INT ratio in 2021, Mayfield was playing hurt for the bulk of the second half, all while trading away his top receiving option in Odell Beckham Jr. He didn't get much help from the rest of his supporting cast. Jarvis Landry led the Browns with 52 receptions on 87 targets, but played in only 12 games all season.

With better options to throw to, as well as some very solid check-down options in his backfield, I don't think we'll see Mayfield turning it over at the same level we saw earlier in his career.

PICK: UNDER 13.5 (-110)

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