Don't Trust Duke as an Underdog in the NCAA Tournament

Duke was able to advance despite some nervous moments against Michigan State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but now a rare and dangerous situation presents itself in the Sweet 16 in Texas Tech.

Texas Tech may be the No. 3 seed while Duke is No. 2 in the West Region (+750 to win the National Championship) but the Red Raiders are one-point favorites. In coach Mike Krzyzewski's final season, oddsmakers at WynnBET Sportsbook are expecting the Blue Devils to be an early exit.

How has Duke done in recent history as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament? One of the most well known teams in college basketball are rarely installed as a dog, so let's dive in and find out:

Duke Recent History Does Not Project Success as an Underdog

It doesn't happen often but Duke has struggled as an underdog. The Blue Devils have been slated as a dog five times since 2003, going 1-4 straight up (SU) and 2-2-1 against the spread (ATS). Of course, this game is saying Duke would need to win to cover, so recent history doesn't play into Coach K's hands. When the Blue Devils have been the worse team, they have typically lost.

If we want to key in on a particular situations, the Blue Devils have been at their worst when outside the Final Four. The team hasn't covered in three non-Final Four games as underdogs (0-2-1), but did cover both times as underdogs in the National Semifinals and Championship Game.

Texas Tech is a Bad Matchup for Duke

The Red Raiders opened as one-point favorites behind the No. 1 defense in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. While the team is far from an explosive offense, the team is elite at finishing inside. Overall, they are 61st in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in two-point percentage.

Both teams like to play on the interior, Duke has a ton of size behind 6'10" forward Paolo Banchero and 7'1" Mark Williams, but the Red Raiders "no-middle" defense shuts off the middle of the court. The team allows the third fewest percentage of points on two-point tries, and will force the Blue Devils to win on the perimeter.

This is setting up for a classic Sweet 16 matchup, but history points to Texas Tech sending Coach K home for the final time.