Drake vs. Indiana State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Finals

Mar 9, 2024; St. Louis, MO, USA;  Indiana State Sycamores guard Julian Larry (1) reacts after making
Mar 9, 2024; St. Louis, MO, USA; Indiana State Sycamores guard Julian Larry (1) reacts after making / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

A ticket to the NCAA Tournament is on the line when Indiana State and Drake meet in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Finals.

The Drake Bulldogs will look to go back-to-back in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, but will face a stiff test in the league's best team, Indiana State. The two teams, the top two seeds in the tournament, have navigated the conference tournament and meet in the finals after splitting the season series.

How should we bet the title game? We got you covered with our full betting preview!

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Drake vs. Indiana State Odds, Spread and Total

Indiana State vs. Drake Betting Trends

  • Drake is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
  • Drake has gone UNDER in all three games as an underdog
  • Indiana State is 19-12-1 ATS this season

Drake vs. Indiana State How to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, March 10th
  • Game Time: 2:10 PM EST
  • Venue: Enterprise Center
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Drake Record: 27-6
  • Indiana State Record: 28-5

Drake vs. Indiana State Players to Watch


Tucker DeVries: The senior forward is averaging nearly 22 points per game as he looks to make it back-to-back MVC titles. While Indiana State has the best defense in the league, per KenPom, DeVries has thrived in this matchup, scoring 29 and 26 points, respectively. Does he have one more big outing in him?

Indiana State

Robbie Avilia: The Sycamores big man is a terror for the opposition. A capable passer, he is top 10 in MVC assist rate, an incredible finisher, he is fifth in two-point percentage in MVC play, and more than willing to step out beyond the arc and hit a three, shooting 42% on the year. Avilia has had success against a stout Drake front line already this season, combining to score 37 points and grab 18 rebounds. Can he lead ISU to the conference championship?

Drake vs. Indiana State Prediction and Pick

This game features two NCAA Tournament qualified teams, but Drake likely needs to win to punch its ticket to the 'Big Dance.'

However, that doesn't impact the handicap in this game. I'm going to target the over, here's why.

While the 'Arch Madness' under trend has been a cash cow throughout the conference tournament, unders have hit in seven of the 10 games (one needing overtime), this number has deviated too far from projections.

KenPom has this game pegged for 159 points, and this game has been bet all the way down to 150.5. It's time to step in with the two most efficient offenses in the Missouri Valley.

DeVries has been able to dominate his matchup on the wing, generating isolation situations in the mid-post area that can unlock an Indiana State defense that may be tops in the MVC, but has allowed him to score a combined 55 points through the first two games.

On the other end, Drake's defense does a great job of keeping opponents off the glass, but the team is vulnerable from deep, allowing a 40% three-point rate and will face an efficient perimeter offense in ISU, who is shooting 37% from beyond the arc in league play.

This game should be close, free throws at the end may matter, and both teams are top 40 in the nation from the charity stripe.

I'll go against the grain and bet over in the MVC title game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!