Dream vs. Wings Prediction and Odds for WNBA Playoffs Game 1 (Back Dallas at Home)

The No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the WNBA playoffs is between the Dallas Wings and Atlanta Dream, two teams stocked with young talent.

Rhyne Howard and the Dream earned the No. 5 spot by winning the tiebreaker over the Washington Mystics and Minnesota Lynx, but they did not close the regular season strong. 

Meanwhile, Dallas has been an elite offense all season long (No. 3 in the WNBA in offensive rating), led by Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard. 

Dallas went 11-9 at home and on the road this season, but can it win and cover as a favorite in Game 1? 

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Here are the odds for Game 1 of this first-round series: 

Dream vs. Wings Odds, Spread and Total

Dream vs. Wings Prediction and Pick

I can’t trust the Dream here after they won just four of their last 10 games to close the regular season. 

Atlanta had a real shot at the No. 4 seed, but it squandered that opportunity away, partially because the team did not play well on the road. 

The No. 5-seeded Dream went just 8-12 straight up and against the spread on the road this season. That’s going to be a problem against this Dallas team that covered at a higher rate at home in 2023. 

• Atlanta’s offense is extremely inefficient for a team that plays at the No. 1 pace in the league. 
• The Dream are 10th in the league in effective field goal percentage and ninth in offensive rating. 
• In their matchups against Dallas this season, the Dream went 0-3, losing twice by double digits. 
• Dallas won the regular season finale between these teams by 17 points – on the road. 

At home, I expect the Wings to cruise to a Game 1 victory. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.