Duke is Woefully Unprepared for Texas Tech in the Sweet 16

The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils breezed through their first two NCAA Tournament games and now take on the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, March 24th, at 9:39 PM EST.

While the Blue Devils are amongst the best teams in the country, they're woefully unprepared for their matchup with the Red Raiders.

In total, KenPom has Duke with the second-weakest strength of schedule of opposing defenses of any team remaining in the tournament. How have they fared against the few good defenses they have faced?

Duke vs Top-50 Defenses

Let's take a look at each of the games Duke played a top-50 defense:

• Nov. 9 - Defeated Kentucky 79-71
• Nov. 26 - Defeated Gonzaga 84-80
• Jan. 12 - Defeated Wake Forest 76-64
• Feb. 5 - Defeated North Carolina 87-67
• Feb. 15 - Defeated Wake Forest 76-74
• Mar. 5 - Lost to North Carolina 94-81

Interestingly enough, their offense has fared well in each of these games, but their defense has been a problem. Duke ranks in the 1st percentile in defensive rating over their last five games and if an opposing defense is able to slow down the Blue Devils' offense at all, they may be toast as they can't stop anyone from scoring right now.

Once you're in the closing rounds of the NCAA Tournament, you want to be prepared for anything you'll face. But Texas Tech is the best defense in the country and Duke hasn't played anyone nearly as good as them. Gonzaga ranks 9th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, but the Blue Devils played them way back in November. Wake Forest and North Carolina both rank outside the top 40, so even the games they have played against good defenses won't have them prepared for the intensity they'll face.

I love the Red Raiders in this matchup and knowing how unprepared Duke will be makes me love them even more.

Bettors need to keep this trend in mind before making a wager on the Sweet 16 - maybe the Blue Devils can overcome their lack of experience, but I'm betting Texas Tech's defense leaves them frustrated.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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