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Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction and Odds

By Matt De Saro

The Duke Blue Devils are in a good spot to march into Chapel Hill and beat their rivals, North Carolina.
The Duke Blue Devils are in a good spot to march into Chapel Hill and beat their rivals, North Carolina. / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
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Duke vs. UNC rivalry will be rekindled for its 102nd season when the No. 9 Blue Devils and Tar Heels clash tonight in Chapel Hill at the Dean E. Smith Center. This game is particularly notable as it will be the final game between these two teams in Chapel Hill in the Coach K era. In his decades at Duke, Krzyzewski has a 16-19 overall record in the Dean Dome.

The Tar Heels might be underdogs here but they have a lot to play for tonight aside from spoiling Coach K’s night. UNC could take over the top spot in the ACC with a win over Duke tonight.  It would cap off an impressive comeback from a team that looked like a bubble team just a few weeks back. But they are on a four-game run and are an intriguing home underdog against their bitter rivals. 

Here are the odds for this ACC matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Duke vs. UNC Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Duke -3 (-110)
  • UNC +3 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Duke -155
  • UNC +127

Total: 151.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Duke vs. UNC Prediction and Pick

Can the Tar Heels keep their foot on the pedal tonight and earn an upset win at home? I think it is certainly possible. In their first year without Roy Williams, Hubert Davis has adapted this team to attack the perimeter more and slow the pace of play down when compared with his predecessor. Davis did a great job developing a game plan based on the pieces he has and the Tar Heels are now one win away from taking over the ACC. Armando Bacot is the best player on this offense and is one of the most talented rebounders in the nation. He is averaging a double-double with 16.5 points and 12.5 assists per game. Bacot is shooting 57.2 from the field and will be the key to success for UNC at home. 

The Tar Heels enter this game 7-5 against the spread as a home team, 7-4 in conference play, and 1-0 as a home underdog. Overall, however, the team is 10-12 ATS. The Tar Heels are the 32nd highest-scoring team in the nation and are shooting 49.1 percent from two and 38.5 percent from downtown. 

While I really want the value that UNC presents at home, I don’t think it’s the right side to be on tonight. First off, Duke is clearly the better team and brings a top 10 scoring offense to the table tonight. The Blue Devils are also a top 50 scoring defense and rank eighth in opponent shooting efficiency.

At the end of the day, this is just not a great matchup for UNC despite what the odds suggest. The Tar Heels are heavily reliant on their size and speed to make things happen on both sides of the court. Trouble is, those advantages evaporate against Duke who is bigger and faster than UNC. I'll take the Blue Devils to take care of business on the road in Coach K’s swansong in Chapel Hill 

Lean: Duke -3 (-110)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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