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Duke vs. Northwestern Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 2

By Reed Wallach

Aug 27, 2022; Dublin, IRELAND; Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver Raymond Niro III runs in for a
Aug 27, 2022; Dublin, IRELAND; Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver Raymond Niro III runs in for a / USA TODAY Sports
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Northwestern got the rare Week 1 bye after winning in Dublin, Ireland in Week 0, and now get a great opportunity to start 2-0.

The Wildcats have their opener against Duke, who beat Temple in Mike Elko's debut game 30-0. Northwestern won a thrilling 31-28 in Ireland, but how will they do back in the friendly confines of Ryan Field?

Let's break this one down with a few key trends as it regards Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald.

Duke vs. Northwestern Odds, Spread and Total

Duke vs. Northwestern Betting Trends

  • Since 2013, Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern teams are 28-7 to the under as home favorites
  • In that same time frame, the Wildcats are 16-3 to the under as double digit favorites
  • As a home favorite, Northwestern is 14-20-1 as a home favorite

Want more trends like this? Make sure to check out The Early Reed, BetSided's College Football betting show!

Duke vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick

As I alluded to above, there are historical trends, leading to an under bet on this one.

Northwestern is typically a team that thrives in the role of an underdog, but not one as a favorite, which is the set up of this game. I don't believe that Ryan Hilinski will replicate his 314 passing yard performance like he did in an up-tempo high scoring affair.

Instead, I think the Wildcats lean on Evan Hull and the ground game and chew some clock and the game mirrors that.

If you want more reason to back the under, Duke, who is coming off a 30-point outing against Temple likely won't have a repeat on the road in Evanston. Temple is one of the worst teams in the country and was the perfect opening game for Elko and co. Riley Leonard passed for 328 yards and complete 80% of his passes, something I don't see being replicating against a Northwestern defense that should match up better against this Duke offense than Nebraska's.

Meanwhile, Elko is a defensive minded coach (he was the DC at Texas A&M before taking the job), and I think he looks to continue to build around that identity in his first season at Duke.

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