Duke vs Virginia Prediction and Odds (Take Cavaliers To Cover Fifth Straight at Home)

After a wild 69-68 Virginia victory off a last-second three-pointer earlier this month, the 23-4 No. 7 Duke Blue Devils get a chance at revenge when they take on the 17-10 Cavaliers tonight at 7:00 PM EST.

The Blue Devils have won eight of nine while Virginia has won and covered the spread in five of their last six. Can the Cavaliers complete a season-sweep at home or will Duke keep rolling?

Here are the odds courtesy of WynnBET:

Duke vs. Virginia Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Duke: -5 (-110
• Virginia: +5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Duke: -200
• Virginia: +165

Total:

• 129.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Duke vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

The only loss the Blue Devils have in the last month is to these Cavaliers, so you can bet they'll be focused to get a win today. With the 7th-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th-ranked defensive efficiency, they're one of the best teams in all of college basketball. They don't turn the ball over, don't let opponents shoot free throws and can score from anywhere.

Meanwhile, Virginia has overcome a slow start to emerge as one of the toughest teams to play against. They play at one of the slowest paces in the country to keep opponents uncomfortable and their offense has started to heat up, helping the over go 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Cavaliers have outright won two of their last three as an underdog and they've won and covered in four in a row at home.

This is the first time Virginia has been a home underdog in two years, when they beat these same Blue Devils. In fact, since Tony Bennett took over the program in 2016, the Cavaliers are 3-0 outright as a home underdog and are 33-16 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog in the ACC. They thrive in these spots under Bennett and given that Duke is just 2-3 ATS over their last five, I like their chances again today.

In the first matchup, Virginia shot just 2/12 from beyond the arc and while they're not a good outside shooting team, we should expect some positive regression there. They forced 15 Duke turnovers and I think their high-pressure defense can smother the Blue Devils and give them opportunities in transition to knock down some open shots.

I'm taking the Cavaliers to cover their fifth straight at home and think we're in for another close one.

Pick: Virginia +5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.