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Duquesne vs. BYU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round (Trust Cougars to Cover)

By Reed Wallach

Mar 14, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Jaxson Robinson (2) reacts to a play
Mar 14, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Jaxson Robinson (2) reacts to a play / William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
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Duquesne finished its season on a tear, winning 15 of its last 18 games to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1977.

The Dukes are into the 'Big Dance' as a No. 11 seed in the East Region to face No. 6 seed BYU from the Big 12. The Cougars offense is dynamic and can put up big numbers on the scoreboard from the perimeter, will that be enough to get past Duquesne's feisty defense?

Here's our full betting preview for this first round matchup:

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Duquesne vs. BYU Odds, Spread and Total

BYU vs. Duquesne Betting Trends

  • Duquesne is 17-16 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Duquesne has covered in eight of the last 10 games
  • Duquesne is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season
  • BYU is 20-13 ATS this season
  • BYU is 18-8 ATS as a favorite

Duquesne vs. BYU How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, March 21st
  • Game Time: 12:40 PM EST
  • Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
  • How to Watch (TV): truTV
  • Duquesne Record: 23-11
  • BYU Record: 23-10

Duquesne vs. BYU Key Players to Watch

Duquesne

Dae Dae Grant: The Dukes' leading scorer, Grant averages nearly 17 points per game while also being an elite free throw shooter, 93% from the charity stripe. Grant was massive in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, including scoring 27 points in the semifinals while making six of his nine three-point attempts.

BYU

Aly Khalifa: BYU should be able to score in multiple ways, but I don't believe the Dukes have an answer for the 6'11" big man. Khalifa is more of a complimentary piece to the roster, but he is a unique asset considering he has the second-highest assists per game mark on the team at above four. Duquesne struggles with cutting actions and in the post, so Khalifa can use his vision as well as size to score easy buckets near the rim or find back-cutting Cougars teammates.

Duquesne vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

This is a great matchup for the Cougars, who get some relief after playing in the vaunted Big 12 conference. While Duquesne can pressure the rock, top 50 in the country, the team may be too aggressive for its own good in this one.

The Dukes can be had on backdoor cuts, a key part of Mark Pope's motion-heavy scheme, as the A-10 automatic qualifier is outside the top 200 in points allowed per possession on cuts according to ShotQuality while BYU is 71st on offense. Further, the team is 296th against post-ups, while BYU is 23rd in that facet with the likes of Khalifa and Fousseyni Traore on the block.

Of course, BYU does love the three-point shot, second in three-point rate on the year, but ShotQuality deems that Duquesne is due a two percent rise in 3P% and is 248th in open three rate. It's worth noting as well that Duquesne is allowing a 42% three-point rate since February 1 but holding teams to shoot 29% from beyond the arc, per Bart Torvik. This can be a shock to the system after playing a handful of A-10 teams that struggle to shoot.

Duquesne offense is outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage and the team's aggressiveness on defense may backfire after BYU's Big 12 run and ability to navigate high ball pressure schemes.

Lay it with BYU.

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