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Duquesne vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Second Round (Lay it With the Illini)

College basketball betting preview for Duquesne-Illinois. 

By Shelby Dermer

Mar 21, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood keeps an eye on the floor.
Mar 21, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood keeps an eye on the floor. / Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
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Can the Dukes keep up their improbable run? Duquesne was one of the bid stealers in the NCAA Tournament and kept the momentum from its A-10 Tournament Championship with a 71-67 upset of No. 6 BYU. No. 11 Duquesne is a sizable underdog again in the Round of 32 against No. 3 Illinois. The Dukes haven’t made the Sweet 16 since 1969. 

Speaking of long waits to get to the second weekend, Illinois hasn’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2005 and Brad Underwood is trying to shake the reputation as a coach who can’t win in March. Illinois pulled away from Morehead State as a double-digit favorite after an early upset bid. Can the Fighting Illini get over the hump? Here’s the betting preview for the second-round tilt with a best bet. 

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Duquesne vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Duquesne vs. Illinois Betting Trends

  • Duquesne is 19-16 ATS this season
  • Illinois is 19-13-3 ATS this season
  • Duquesne is 8-3 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Illinois is 15-12-2 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 9-25-1 in Duquesne games this season
  • The OVER is 25-10 in Illinois games this season 

Duquesne vs. Illinois How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, March 23 
  • Game time: 8:40 p.m. EST
  • Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
  • How to watch (TV): TNT
  • Duquesne record: 25-11
  • Illinois record: 27-8

Duquesne vs. Illinois Key Players to Watch

Duquesne

Jakub Necas: The freshman forward averages just 2.5 points per game but has been big during Duquesne’s run. Necas scored eight points in each in the last two A-10 Tournament games, then had 12 points and 6 rebounds in Duquesne’s upset of BYU in the first round. 

Illinois 

Dain Dainja: The 6-foot-9 junior forward shoots 68.1% from the field and took advantage of a promising matchup in the paint against Morehead State. Dainja, who averages 6.2 points per game, went 9-for-9 from the field for 18 points to go with 8 rebounds off the bench to help the Fighting Illini advance. 

Duquesne vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick 

Illinois racked up 34 points in the paint in its first-round win over Morehead State and should capitalize on its size advantage in this matchup. Duquesne’s defense has been its calling card all season. The Dukes are No. 29 in KenPom in defensive efficiency and No. 53 in effective field goal percentage, but are much better on the perimeter than down low.

Illinois is the No. 31 two-point shooting team in the country with the eighth-tallest lineup in the country. Duquesne is No. 284 in average height and Illinois should see success around the rim. If the Dukes pack the paint, Illinois still has an answer with guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (23.1 points per game) leading an offense that was top-5 in the Big 10 in 3-point shooting and buried 12 triples in the first round. The Fighting Illini are No. 43 in effective field goal percentage.

Defensively, Illinois can pack the paint (No. 31 in 2-point shooting) against a struggling Dukes’ offense that struggles to shoot the rock (No. 208 in effective field goal percentage) and gets a ton of its shots blocked (No. 310 in block percentage). Illinois uses its size to take control of this matchup and advances to the Sweet 16. 

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Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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