Dylan Cease Should Be the AL Cy Young Favorite Over Justin Verlander

Want to learn a stat that will put the same expression on your face as George Takei's legendary "Oh my" moment?

Statistician Jay Cuda of Stathead found that since 1997, there have been four pitchers in Big League history with 160 or more strikeouts and an ERA below 2.00 after 22 starts.

Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Felix Hernandez and your eventual AL Cy Young winner Dylan Cease.

That's right, I'm betting on the 26-year old right-hander to eventually pass up the current consensus favorite in Houston Astros starter Justin Verlander when the season is complete.

Here's the latest odds for the AL Cy Young across multiple sportsbooks.

AL Cy Young Odds From Every Sportsbook

Justin Verlander - Houston Astros

• Consensus: -152
• DraftKings: -165
• BetRivers: -152
• FanDuel: -135
• PointsBet: -160
• Caesars: -175

Dylan Cease - Chicago White Sox

• Consensus: +225
• DraftKings: +240
• BetRivers: +225
• FanDuel: +200
• PointsBet: +275
• Caesars: +275

Shane McClanahan - Tampa Bay Rays

• Consensus: +600
• DraftKings: +650
• BetRivers: +600
• FanDuel: +550
• PointsBet: +700
• Caesars: +500

The AL Cy Young Case for Dylan Cease Over Justin Verlander

The argument for Cease is two-fold regarding his Cy Young candidacy.

The first is through historical context. Of the aforementioned list from Cuda, going back to Vida Blue in 1971, three of the four pitchers (Blue - 1971, Clemens - 1997, Martinez - 2000) all went on to win the AL Cy Young that season. Felix Hernandez finished second in a very close race to Corey Kluber, losing the vote by only 10 points.

Then, there's the actual numbers themselves. Cease leads the league in strikeouts per nine innings, has a sub-2 ERA of 1.98 (Verlander is 1.85), and has a better expected ERA (xERA) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and expected FIP, or xFIP than Verlander.

What about value to his own team? Longtime statistician Christopher Kamka points out that the White Sox are 17-5 in games that Cease starts, and are just 39-50 for everyone else. The Astros are 16-5 when Verlander takes the bump, but are also 55-36 without him. Cease is literally keeping the White Sox' playoff dreams alive pitching every fifth day.

Houston has the slightly easier strength of schedule in the final month and a half compared to Chicago, but with Houston more than 10.5 games ahead in the division, there's a distinct possibility that Verlander's usage may decrease down the stretch. The same can't be said for the White Sox, who find themselves on the outside looking in for the AL Wild Card by 2.5 games, with four other teams ahead of them.

As long as Cease continues on this pace, he'll keep making a strong case on his own accord. This may be the final opportunity to grab him at almost 3/1 odds, so if you want in, now's the time to strike.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!