Eastern Kentucky vs. Florida Gulf Coast Prediction and Odds (Back the Road Underdog)

A pair of struggling ASUN teams meet on Thursday evening when Eastern Kentucky travels to face Florida Gulf Coast.

Both clubs enter 2-4 in league play and will look to get on track against one another in what should be a high paced affair, as indicated by the large total.

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Eastern Kentucky vs. Florida Gulf Coast Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Eastern Kentucky: +3.5 (-115)
• Florida Gulf Coast: -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

• Eastern Kentucky: +135
• Florida Gulf Coast: -160

Total: 153 (Over -110/Under -110)

Eastern Kentucky vs. Florida Gulf Coast Prediction and Pick

In a game that I project as close to a coin flip, I see some value in backing Eastern Kentucky as a road underdog. The Colonels do a great job in the turnover department, both on offense and defense. The team is top 100 nationally in offensive turnover percentage, but also top 20 in generating them. FGCU is bottom third in the country in protecting the ball which can be problematic against a team that loves to run.

Turnovers create a lot of volatility in games and make EKU a nice underdog pick if you are looking for a bigger payout than most bets. The Colonels can either get blown out or crush a team. I'd avoid the spread and run with the ML here.

Eastern Kentucky plays at a top 25 team in terms of adjusted tempo, per KenPom, and also are top 20 in potential quick points off breakaway steals per 100 possessions according to Haslemetrics.

Outside of turnovers, schematically, the Eagles may be at a disadvantage as home favorites. The team is 12th in the country in 3-point rate, but the Colonels boast a strong perimeter defense and allow a limited amount of shots from deep (opponents shoot just 30% from the perimeter).

Meanwhile, EKU shoots even more 3s, sixth in the nation. While we are counting on the team to shoot well on the road, the mix of transition opportunities and high rate of three's makes me believe the visitors are ripe for an upset.

LEAN: Eastern Kentucky ML (+135)

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 25-31-3 for -7.12 units.