Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11
By Reed Wallach
Defending MAC champions Toledo will look to continue its undefeated start to MAC play as big favorites at home against Eastern Michigan.
It's been a down year for Eastern Michigan, who has had an ineffective offense throughout, but is in a favorable spot as a big underdog, can the team cover a big number against Toledo, who has struggled to cover double-digit points spreads all season?
Here's our look at Wednesday's MAC matchup:
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Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Odds, Spread and Total
Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan Betting Trends
- Eastern Michigan is 5-4 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Toledo is 4-5 ATS this season
- Toledo is 2-4 ATS as a double digit favorite
- Eastern Michigan is 2-0 as a double digit underdog
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, November 8th
- Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
- Venue: The Glass Bowl
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
- Eastern Michigan Record: 8-1
- Toledo Record: 4-5
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Key Players to Watch
Eastern Michigan
Austin Smith: Smith has battled injuries all season, but with an extra week of prep should be the man under center for EMU. Smith has struggled all season, completing only 56% of his passes with seven touchdown passes and six interceptions for 1,320 yards on less than five yards per dropback. He'll face a Toledo defense that is top 10 in EPA/Pass, so Smith must be protective of the ball.
Toledo
Penny Boone: The Rockets' 1,000-yard rusher was as explosive as ever last week against Buffalo, rushing for 125 yards on 12 carries with a touchdown. Toledo's offense has been one of the best at the Group of Five level, ranking 12th in EPA/Play and the threat of the Maryland transfer has been a big reason why.
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Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick
While Toledo was able to cover against Buffalo, the team didn't impress as one would think, scoring on the opening kickoff and Boone taking a 71-yard carry to the house (which should not have counted after dropping the ball short of the end zone. It should've been a touchback). Overall, Toledo had three fumbles and allowed five tackles for loss in the 18-point win, securing the cover with a goal-line stand in the final minutes.
The team faces Eastern Michigan, who has had a disappointing season, but is in an incredibly profitable as a double-digit underdog under head coach Chris Creighton. Under Creighton, EMU is 47-30-1 against the spread-catching points.
While trends shouldn't be the only reason to make a bet, the Eagles' defense is a good team to back as a big underdog given that the team is top 30 in explosive rush defense and is allowing a touchdown on 48% of opponent's red zone trips, 26th in the country. Overall, the defense has done a solid job all season, allowing about five yards per play (53rd in the nation).
Toledo's offense thrives on explosive plays with the likes of Boone ripping off chunk plays, but quarterback Dequan Finn has been prone to some sloppy turnovers. The team is 98th in turnovers lost this season and will be facing a team that is bottom 10 in terms of plays per minute this season, meaning one mistake can keep the offense on the field for a while.
Eastern Michigan's offense leaves a ton to be desired, but given the way the team defends explosive plays and its slow tempo, I believe it's the side to bet to cover a massive number on the road.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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