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Every MLB Team's Projected Playoff Odds (Fangraphs, PECOTA and Vegas Odds All Together)

By Ben Heisler

Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels have a wide range of outcomes for their odds to make the MLB postseason in 2022.
Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels have a wide range of outcomes for their odds to make the MLB postseason in 2022. / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
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A lot can change between the start of June and the end of the MLB regular season.

In 2021, the Chicago Cubs were 31-23; atop the NL Central division with a +33 run differential; fourth-best in the National League!

They finished the season 71-91 with a -134 run differential.

As the 2022 MLB season transitions into June; we're just over a quarter of the way through 162. Some surprise teams have gotten off to a terrific start, while other projected contenders have slumped out of the gate.

Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projections all keep running playoff odds based off their calculations for the season. Many teams project at close to the same or similar numbers, while other calculations have several teams far apart.

Additionally, many sportsbooks post division winner odds that continuously update throughout the season.

So how do all these odds compare to each other?

Below are every MLB team's playoff odds, sorted from AL East, Central, and West, followed by NL East, Central and West from Fangraphs and PECOTA. Additionally, each team's consensus odds to win their division is also listed for added perspective.

With 12 teams now making the postseason in 2022 with six representing each league, who do the models, as well as the oddsmakers expect to be in or out?

AL East Playoff Odds

New York Yankees

  • Fangraphs: 98.2%
  • PECOTA: 99.3%
  • Division Odds (consensus): -210

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Fangraphs: 95.1%
  • PECOTA: 88.1%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +350

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Fangraphs: 63.1%
  • PECOTA: 61.6%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +650

Boston Red Sox

  • Fangraphs: 31.4%
  • PECOTA: 30.7%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +3000

Baltimore Orioles

  • Fangraphs: 0.0%
  • PECOTA: 0.0%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +200000

AL Central Playoff Odds and Percentages

Minnesota Twins

  • Fangraphs: 56.9%
  • PECOTA: 71.5%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +115

Chicago White Sox

  • Fangraphs: 64.5%
  • PECOTA: 71.8%
  • Division Odds (consensus): -105

Cleveland Guardians

  • Fangraphs: 15.0%
  • PECOTA: 10.8%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +900

Detroit Tigers

  • Fangraphs: 0.9%
  • PECOTA: 0.0%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +7500

Kansas City Royals

  • Fangraphs: 0.3%
  • PECOTA: 0.1%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +10000

AL West Playoff Odds and Percentages

Houston Astros

  • Fangraphs: 98.5%
  • PECOTA: 97.3%
  • Division Odds (consensus): -340

Los Angeles Angels

  • Fangraphs: 57.0%
  • PECOTA: 37.3%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +310

Seattle Mariners

  • Fangraphs: 11.1%
  • PECOTA: 25.5%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +2700

Texas Rangers

  • Fangraphs: 8.0%
  • PECOTA: 6.0%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +10000

Oakland Athletics

  • Fangraphs: 0.0%
  • PECOTA: 0.0%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +25000

NL East Playoff Odds and Percentages

New York Mets

  • Fangraphs: 95.6%
  • PECOTA: 98.2%
  • Division Odds (consensus): -370

Atlanta Braves

  • Fangraphs: 60.2%
  • PECOTA: 46.4%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +500

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Fangraphs: 19.1%
  • PECOTA: 36.2%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +1100

Miami Marlins

  • Fangraphs: 8.3%
  • PECOTA: 11.3%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +4000

Washington Nationals

  • Fangraphs: 0.0%
  • PECOTA: 0.1%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +250000

NL Central Playoff Odds and Percentages

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Fangraphs: 94.3%
  • PECOTA: 98.1%
  • Division Odds (consensus): -320

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Fangraphs: 90.3%
  • PECOTA: 68.5%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +260

Chicago Cubs

  • Fangraphs: 1.2%
  • PECOTA: 0.8%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +6000

Cincinnati Reds

  • Fangraphs: 0.4%
  • PECOTA: 0.3%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +50000

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Fangraphs: 0.3%
  • PECOTA: 0.1%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +15000

NL West Playoff Odds and Percentages

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Fangraphs: 98.3%
  • PECOTA: 99.9%
  • Division Odds (consensus): -290

San Diego Padres

  • Fangraphs: 90.3%
  • PECOTA: 95.3%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +350

San Francisco Giants

  • Fangraphs: 71.4%
  • PECOTA: 39.7%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +950

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Fangraphs: 2.3%
  • PECOTA: 4.9%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +50000

Colorado Rockies

  • Fangraphs: 0.2%
  • PECOTA: 0.2%
  • Division Odds (consensus): +25000

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