Expect More Unders in the Second Round of the NHL Playoffs
By Ben Heisler
When the Stanley Cup playoffs begin, fans and bettors alike have become accustomed to seeing scoring drop down, providing for the dramatics and theater that are synonymous with playoff hockey.
For bettors relying on the old, reliable "under" bet, their pocketbook has taken a massive hit.
OVERS in the first round of the playoffs went an astonishing 31-18-2, via Dave Tuley of VSiN; hitting at over 63% in the first round. Over the last 10 days, overs went from 8-8 to 23-10-2; hitting at just under 70% to wrap up the first round.
VFV of #NHL: faves (on 13-2 run last 5 nights) are 33-18 SU in playoffs; home teams lead 32-19; zig-zag 1-1 Sunday (win by Flames but loss by Penguins), but still 24-19 SU overall; Overs finished 1st round at 31-18-2 (63.3%), 23-10-2 (69.7%) last 10 days after 8-8 start @VSiNLive
— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) May 16, 2022
Entering the postseason, NHL teams averaged 3.15 goals per game, which was the highest amount in over 26 years. Now, after the conclusion of the first round of the NHL postseason, scoring actually went up!
Via research from FiveThirtyEight, teams averaged 3.216 goals per game. It's the ninth-highest goals per game average since 1987 when Round 1 became a best-of-seven series, and the highest goals per game average since 1995.
FiveThirtyEight also points out that scoring increased just six times in the first round of the playoffs since 1987, the latest change coming in 1995 when it went up +0.41 goals per game.
Expect More Low Scoring Games the Rest of the NHL Postseason
As more and more top teams advance to the second round, bettors should expect more unders to start hitting as competition amps up.
The opening round of the postseason helped separate many true contenders from overachieving teams. So far during this postseason, the average margin of victory (2.71 goals) was the highest in league history since the format changed in 1987.
One of several reasons for this was teams making more aggressive chances in pulling their goalie down in games. More goals and more margins to make up necessitated more teams to get an extra attacker on the ice earlier than usual, leading to an even further influx of late game goals.
Several sportsbooks have even had to adjust their live in-game betting model to account for this recent change.
Ultimately, as trends often go one way, they tend to regress back to the mean in due time. With books getting crushed by overs throughout the first round, expect a push back to where the NHL has traditionally gone in the postseason.
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