Expect Regression From Ja Morant in Game 4 vs. Jazz

The Memphis Grizzlies are down 2-1 in their series against the Utah Jazz heading into Monday night’s Game 4, but it’s certainly not due to the play of Ja Morant. Morant has averaged 33.66 points per game this series, including a 47-point performance in their Game 2 loss.

Vegas has had no choice but to adjust the totals for his player prop, as his point total is now set at 25.5 for Game 4, with the under only slightly favorite at -116 odds. This is four points higher than his Game 1 point total which was set at 21.5.

There’s nothing I love more than betting on the UNDER on a player’s point total, and I think we’re in a prime position to do that again tonight. What goes up, must come down, and Morant is due for regression after a hot start in the series.

While Morant has been impressive, let’s not forget that he averaged 19.1 points per game this season, a full six points lower than his set total for Game 4. It’s important not to get distracted by a small sample size, the big picture is always more important.

The Jazz allowing a point guard to put up the points that Morant has done this series, has been uncharacteristic of them. During the regular season, Utah gave up the fourth fewest points to point guards in the NBA, averaging 22.72 per game.

Finally, Morant failed to surpass 25.5 points in his final six regular season games.

While the former Murray State guard deserves all the credit he’s getting for trying to single handedly carry his team to the second round of the NBA playoffs, a point total of 25.5 is an overreaction to his recent performances.

Whether or not the Grizzlies will win tonight is up for debate, but you have to like the under on Morant’s point total of 25.5.