Fade Any Futures Bets with Ties to Mitchell Trubisky

The NFL season is in the rearview mirror, and one area that's been a hot topic of debate are the hyped-up names on the free-agent market. With plenty of quality players expected to be widely available, a few stand out in particular. 

One of those standout names that caught my eye was Mitchell Trubisky. The former UNC standout fell out of favor quickly as a member of the Chicago Bears from 2017-2020. After becoming a free agent in the 2021 offseason, Trubisky spent last year in Buffalo as backup to Bills quarterback Josh Allen. It was a way for him to hit the reset button on his career and hopefully lure another team into signing him as a starting QB.

Now at 27 years old, Trubisky is in his physical prime, but it’s hard to predict how his skills as a quarterback have developed over the last year without actually playing consistently in the regular season. We got a little taste of Trubisky last year as he made six appearances for the Bills. He looked okay in limited action; going 6-for-8 with 24 yards with a touchdown and one interception. 

While he is far from somebody I’d want starting for my team, I fully expect a team to take a chance on him in 2022. Among the franchises who are reportedly looking close are the Commanders, Steelers, and Sants.

Before I tear more into Trubisky, I will say that I agree with those who believe Matt Nagy had a lot to do with his awful fourth season. There was a clear lack of connection and the young QB started to visibly regress. He is also an above-average athlete for the position and at 27 still has room to improve. I think his year in Buffalo probably helped, but it will be impossible to know that until at least preseason. 

Despite the pros that Trubisky has on his side, there is so much going against him that I struggle to think of a good fit for him. This also means that I would stay far away from any future bet on any team that signs him to start next year. 

Trubisky had the possibility to be a great talent in the league but bad coaching and a lack of development put the skids on that. In his best season under center, he played 15 games for the Bears in 2019, throwing over 3,000 yards passing with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. But, the Bears finished 8-8 and failed to make the playoffs after winning the division in 2018.

In 2020 things went way off the rails. Bad coaching or not, Trubisky is not free from blame for his regression. He played just 10 games, completed less than 200 passes, and barely cracked the 2,000-yard mark. He had a TD/INT ratio of 2/1 and a QBR of just 53.8.

Some are of the opinion that Trubisky hasn’t had enough time to prove himself. To those people, I direct you to this tweet from Kevin Cole at PFF.

I think one of the main reasons that Trubisky is getting so much attention is the lack of starting QB talent in the upcoming NFL Draft. Another is that there it is expected that precious few current QBs will be hitting the market. The desperation would only grow if Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson stayed put. 

While I have no doubt that a team will take a chance on Trubisky to start, I do know I won’t be betting on that team until I see them in action.