Fade Jaylen Brown in Game 4 Points Prop Bet Based on This Trend

The Boston Celtics, down 2-1 in their current series with the Milwaukee Bucks, are in a precarious position heading into Monday’s Game 4. The Eastern Conference Semifinals move back to Milwaukee tonight where the Bucks are 3-1 during the playoffs. With Giannis and Co. playing very well right now, the Celtics need some big games from their big names. 

One guy the Celtics are going to rely on is starting shooting guard Jaylen Brown. Brown is having a very solid postseason and is averaging just under 23 points per game. He’s neither picked up the pace nor has he fallen off of it during this postseason. His stats are pretty much identical to his regular-season work over the last seven games. He is averaging a shade less in the points department in fact. 

While an average of 22.4 points per game isn’t that much of a dropoff from 23.6 points per game, it is significant from a player props standpoint. For some reason, Brown’s scoring total is set at 24.5 tonight at WynnBET Sportsbook. And while he has the chops to score 25 points tonight, the trends suggest falling short of that goal in Game 4. 

Brown is not only averaging two points less than his scoring total tonight, but he failed to go over 25.5 points in eight of his last ten games.

I think the odds where they have to do with a bit of recency bias and not long-term stats. Brown is averaging 28.5 points in his last two games against the Bucks, after averaging 22.5 PPG in the Celtics’ sweep of the Bucks.

Is it possible that Brown matches up that much better with Milwaukee and sees another game in the 30 points range? Absolutely. But, with the total juiced to the over, and Brown’s long-term numbers, I think fading him tonight is the right move.