Fade Joe Burrow at Your Own Risk

After a rough rookie season, Joe Burrow has finally shown the world why the Bengals spent a No. 1 draft pick on him in 2020. He took the Bengals from a 4-11-1 team that missed the playoffs by a lot, to a 10-7 team that won the AFC North. 

Over the course of 17 regular-season games,  Burrow ranked sixth in passing yards (4,661 yards), eighth in touchdowns (34), and 11th in QBR (54.5). Needless to say, the former No. 1 pick has improved mightily since his rookie campaign. 

His improvement is perfectly summed up by a statistic based on his previous five games, including last week against Las Vegas. In the last five weeks, Joe Burrow has had a passer rating that eclipsed 100. This is not only impressive in and of itself, but it tied the record for the longest active streak with fellow NFL MVP hopeful Aaron Rodgers. 

Things get even more impressive when just highlighting his performance over the last three games. In those contests, against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Raiders, Burrow threw for 1,215 yards, 10 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. In doing so, he becomes the first QB in NFL history to throw for more than 1,200 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions in a three-game span. One of those games being a playoff matchup makes this accomplishment even that much more impressive.

With Burrow on a tear, and the Titans having the 25th ranked passing defense, he could be in for another massive game. This makes his prop bets much more attractive, just as long as the odds are reasonable.

Right now, the Bengals are 3.5-point underdogs against Tennessee with a projected total of 47 points. So how does that impact the prop market for Burrow?

Let’s review his player props for the Divisional Round from WynnBET Sportsbook and make a few quick predictions. 

• Total Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 (-190,+145)
• Total Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 (-120,-110)
• Total Passing Completions O/U 24.5 (-105, -115)
• Total Passing Yards O/U 280.5 (-115,-115)
• Anytime TD scorer +500

Taking a look back at the last two weeks of the regular season, these numbers look awfully low especially considering the Titans passing defense is pretty suss. Over the final two weeks of the regular season, Burrow totaled 971 yards eight touchdowns, and no interceptions. For reference, Burrow didn’t go over 971 yards until Week 5 of last season and didn’t throw for his eighth TD until Week 7.

I know that hot streaks are hard to keep going, but I'll be dammed if I bet against Burrow this weekend after the dominating performance he has put up over the last month,