Fade the Kansas City Chiefs to Win AFC West Division in 2022

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs for a first down in the first quarter
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs for a first down in the first quarter / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY

We are just a week away from the start of the 2022 NFL season, so I need to get all of my hot takes out of the way now that September is here.

One that my friends over at Arrowhead Addict won't appreciate, is that I'm of the firm belief that the Kansas City Chiefs won't win the AFC West in 2022.

Before I defend myself, let's take a look at their current odds via WynnBET Sportsbook heading into the season:

Kansas City Chiefs Odds

  • Super Bowl: +1000
  • AFC: +500
  • AFC West: +160
  • Win total: 10.5

Before you jump down my throat, let's take a moment to understand that the sportsbooks aren't exactly calling the Chiefs locks to win their division either.

While they're still the favorites to win the division, +160 odds translates to an implied probability of 38.46%. Much lower odds than what we've seen entering the past few NFL seasons.

Let's take a look into why that's the case.

Chiefs Defense Cause For Concern

How quickly people have forgotten just how bad this Chiefs defense was in 2021.

Let's look at where they ranked in a few key areas:

  • Opponent yards per play: 28th
  • Opponent yards per carry: 30th
  • Opponent yards per pass attempt: 26th
  • Third down defense: 22nd
  • Sack percentage: 31st

Those aren't the numbers of a team I'd be confident in to win a Super Bowl, let alone a division.

It's not like they got better in the offseason either. They lost Melvin Ingram and Tyrann Mathieu, and replaced them with Justin Reid and Carlos Dunlap. Not exactly moves that make me think they're all of a sudden becoming a top 10 unit.

I haven't even mentioned that the Chiefs lost one of the best receivers in football. Patrick Mahomes is now left without a true No. 1 option outside of tight end Travis Kelce.

Now, they have to try to win a division that only got stronger in the offseason. The L.A. Chargers beefed up their defense, the Las Vegas Raiders added Devante Adams, and Russell Wilson is now under-center in Denver with the Broncos.

There's no doubt he's one of the best quarterbacks in the game, but there are a lot of red flags about this Chiefs team heading into 2022.

I'll be shocked if the Chiefs are named kings of the AFC West for the seventh straight season.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.