Fade Mac Jones, Patriots At Home Against Bills

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots battle for positioning in the AFC East this week in Foxboro. This is the first meeting between the two teams, with the Patriots two games back of the Bills. 

A win here would be huge for the Patriots and truly open up the AFC East. However, a win for the Bills would put them atop the division and give them an opportunity to control their own destiny. 

Let’s dive into the odds for this one. 

Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total Movement in NFL Week 13

The Bills have moved down from 5.5-point favorites to just 3.5-point favorites. The total has dropped from 45 to 43.5. 

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction and Best Bet

I’ve tried to fade the Patriots as much as possible this year because I simply don’t trust Mac Jones. He’s regressed since his rookie season and has been lucky enough to play Zach Wilson twice. 

New England has an elite defense, but a middle of the pack offense – which is why the Bills are the right pick in this one. Buffalo will be able to shut down Mac Jones on the outside (10th in opponent yards per pass), contain Rhamondre Stevenson (9th in opponent yards per rush) and keep the overall scoring down (5th in opponent points per game). 

Josh Allen looked healthy against the Lions on Thanksgiving, which is a good sign for Buffalo. As long as Allen is good to go, we can safely back the Bills – especially with the line moving towards the Patriots.