Fade Max Scherzer’s High Strikeout Total vs. Padres

Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer is one of baseball's most prolific strikeout artists.

He's led the National League in strikeouts three consecutive years and led all of Major League Baseball in two of the three seasons.

So when WynnBET listed Scherzer's strikeout prop at just 7.5 on the road at San Diego, conventional wisdom would lead you to think he should clear that number with ease, but let's take a closer look.

This year at the age of 36, he's once again on top of his game, pitching to a 2.10 ERA in 16 games started, with the lowest WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched) of his career. His strikeout rate remains excellent at 12.1 K's per nine innings, and Scherzer has cleared eight strikeouts or more in 11 of his 16 games started this year.

Here's why the Padres are a bad fit for the prop to hit the over.

For starters, they've become a much more disciplined team at the dish. San Diego owns the third-lowest strikeout percentage in the Majors, punching out just 21.9% of the time. Only the Astros (18.7%), and Blue Jays (21.7%) have better numbers.

The Padres also have the fourth highest walk rate in baseball, taking the free pass more than 10.2% of the time. Only the Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants can say that.

San Diego simply doesn't strike out often against team's starting pitchers. The last time the Padres gave up eight or more punch-outs to an opposing starter was on Saturday, July 2nd to Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. While Wheeler was brilliant, he got nine K's in 7.2 innings.

Scherzer continues to harness some of the best stuff in the game, but his occasional inconsistencies with control can lead him to a high pitch count which consequently forces him to leave the game earlier than he'd like to.

I'll be leaning under on what feels like a slightly inflated strikeout total tonight.

Are you buying on Mad Max to go over or under his strikeout prop?

Make your pick on WynnBET in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado.