Fade the Public on Quarterbacks Taken in the First Round

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder is a projected first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. But is that all media hype?
Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder is a projected first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. But is that all media hype? / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY

The most important position in sports has the least amount of juice in several years for the 2022 NFL Draft.

First the praise came during the NFL combine for Liberty quarterback Malik Willis. Then, after Kenny Pickett's hand size got dissected under the proverbial microscope, he started to move right back up mock draft boards; as if nothing ever happened!

Even FanSided's Matt Verderame, on Wednesday's episode of "Daily Betslip" said he wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers reached for the Pittsburgh quarterback at No. 6 overall.

The reality of this year's draft at the quarterback position is there are few, if any, top-tier prospects at the position. Any of the five quarterbacks from last year's class would have likely been the top option at the position for this year's draft.

Right now at WynnBET Sportsbook, the number of quarterbacks projected to go in the first round of the NFL Draft is set at "3," and while public bettors are willing to bite that teams might get antsy for a quarterback, the oddsmakers in Vegas would highly suggest that to be a costly mistake.

On Wednesday afternoon, while the BetSided team put together our best prop bets for the NFL Draft, our Donnavan Smoot grabbed the UNDER at 3 at -110 odds. Now, the line has been juiced all the way to -320 on the UNDER.

Vegas Doesn't Buy Multiple Quarterbacks Going in the First Round of the NFL Draft

So why has the narrative been that more teams may try to get the quarterback they want in the first round? Is it playing into making this year's draft more compelling, or is it a complete farce?

To get a better sense of whether the quarterback love is more of a pipe dream then a reality, we asked WynnBET trader John Manica for his insight on whether there's any professional money coming in on the OVER for quarterbacks in the first round. His answer spoke volumes.

"The NFL draft market is largely sharp bettors paying attention to mocks and news. These players are firing away at the first chance of a good price," Manica told BetSided.

"I believe some square money could come in on bets such as total quarterbacks selected over. There could be potentially people betting on their hometown team to take a certain player.”

Public bettors over the last several years became accustomed to seeing more and more teams reach for their guys at the top of the board; especially at the quarterback position. But sometimes, the odds speak for themselves.

As tempting as it may be to eye the +260 odds on the OVER, the oddsmakers are giving bettors every indication they can to not fall for the trap.

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